Coronary Artery Disease Essay

Coronary heart disease (CHD), also called coronary artery disease, is a condition in which plaque builds up inside the coronary arteries. These arteries supply oxygen-rich blood to your heart muscle. This plaque is made up of fat, cholesterol, calcium, and other substances found in the blood. When plaque builds up in the arteries, the condition is called atherosclerosis, the buildup of plaque occurs over many years. Over time, the plaque hardens which causes your coronary arteries to narrow, which limits the amount of oxygen and blood your muscles are supposed to get to function properly. Coronary Artery Disease is the leading cause of death in the United States because of the people’s not so healthy diet, lack of exercise, and tendency to smoke, which are the leading causes of Coronary artery disease. The symptoms might be very noticeable, or you might not experience anything when having CHD, one of the main symptoms is Angina which causes major chest pain or at least some discomfort or abnormal feeling on your chest. Also, you may feel like your chest is closing up and it will become harder for you to breathe, also may experience pain on your neck, lower back, and extremities, oh and not less important, fatigue and weakness are also symptoms. For treatment, your doctor will give you specific medications based on how severe your case is, eating habits will need to change, start exercising, and if a smoker, to quit smoking. Oh, very important to know, DO NOT under any circumstances, stop your medication, it will come back and probably worse than before it was treated. In very extreme cases, an angioplasty and stent placement, coronary artery bypass surgery, or a minimally invasive heart surgery will be needed in order to survive. Although everyone is different, early detection of CHD generally results in a better outcome. But after treatment, it’s not all gone; you might be stuck with some long-term effects. One of them being Unstable Angina, which I said was a severe chest pain due to not enough oxygen going to the lungs. Heart failure could also happen, due to the lack of blood and oxygen being transported to the heart, it weakens which makes everything much difficult than before, this is a heart failure. A long- term coronary artery disease could lead to suffering heart attacks, which happens when the artery is completely blocked, so no oxygen or blood flowing through whatsoever. Coronary artery disease is a very harmful disease when not treated, but being healthy could prevent it References: * http://health.nytimes.com/health/guides/disease/coronary-heart-disease/overview.html * http://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/health-topics/topics/cad/

Compulsory Education

â€Å"Thank you God for whom we all are equal so here I stand one girl among many , I speak not for myself , but all the boys and girls that fought for their rights to get their right to equality of opportunity to get an education† said Malala Yousafzai. Malala is a young girl who fought for her education, her future and her right in Pakistan to be able to learn and get free compulsory education. Compulsory education should be mandatory for every com/discrimination-among-girl-child-and-boy-child/">girl and boy because everyone deserve to have a great education, nobody can get a good job without having a great education.To begin with, free compulsory education should be mandatory for every boys and girls because everyone deserve to have a great education. Children can make a huge difference by picking up a pen and paper to make the world know that we are ready to learn. Education can entitle children to make better learning environment. Also, education will help children go to college and accomplish a goal in their life to seek for new idea each and every day. For example, Malala Yousafzai made a difference in her country Pakistan by standing among many other children and speak her rights about having education in her life.Malala wanted compulsory education and equal right for all girls and boy. Malala has been in many difficulties situation like getting shot in on her left side of her forehead and losing two of her friends, but that night she did not know what was coming for her, they thought that the bullets would silence them. But it failed, and the terrorists thought that they would change but nothing change that night except strength, power and courage to stand up to her hopes and dreams.Now since she recovering she protesting about have the illegal right to have free compulsory education for every boy and girl because we are all equal and we need a future ahead of us. This story proves that compulsory education should be mandatory for every boys and girl and have the right to learn. Nobody wants to have no goal in their life, so compulsory education should be mandatory for every girls and boys. Additionally, free compulsory education should be mandatory for every girls and boys because nobody want to be that person without getting a good job and no type of education in their future to move on and to be a succesful person.No one wants to be that person without going to college and preparing to be something with no future ahead of them and no goal, the greatest miracle of your success in life will not be that you finished, it will be that you had the courage to begin getting fee compulsory education and learn new thing. Nowadays, everyone knows how important education is. The obvious evidence is the decreasing rate of illiteracy, almost children wants a future in they life. Education can decide the future of any country in the world.So, governments throughout the world should make education compulsory for all children, everyone have an equal opportunity to receive free compulsory education. For example, Malala Yousafzai made a different because education is allowed for all women and for all ages in Saudi Arabia and every child is required to receive an education. Women and men are educated separately, but they have the same opportunities and equal access to education. It used to be that women could just be teachers, but now the government has opened a lot of opportunities: accountant, doctor, nurse, and more. In the last five years, there have been a lot of changes.There is even a special university to prepare women for better jobs. It will have a positive impact because Malala asked for something that she should have. She asked for an education for the women in her country and she has a right to that. Malala did the right thing and she kept on going and kept fighting for her right to have free compulsory education. This story proves why compulsory education should be mandatory for every girls and boys. Ed ucation should be made for everyone because we are all equal and education should be require for everyone so children would not fail in life.

Student Portfolio Assessment Dissertation Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

Student Portfolio Assessment - Dissertation Example Yet, researchers lack an agreement on the components of listening. Various research studies attempted to provide empirical support (Buck & Tatsuoka, 1998; Kostin, 2004) and theoretical taxonomies Mendelsohn, 1994) for the sub-skills of listening processes. None of these taxonomies could be exhaustive and comprehensive descriptions of the listening process (Buck, 2001). Literature Review The literature reviewed in this paper concentrates on studies relevant to testing listening. Powers (1985) aimed to validate the use of TOEFL listening tests and investigated listening activities important to academic success across disciplines. Powers conducted surveys to faculty members, students, and admission officers at universities. The survey investigated the importance of various listening activities to academic success and problems with these activities for native and nonnative speakers. The results may be used to check validity of test score uses. The following activities were rated as very important in academic contexts. Identifying major themes or ideas Identifying relationships among major ideas Identifying the topic of a lecture Retaining information through note-taking Retrieving information from notes Inferring relationships between information Comprehending key vocabulary Following the spoken mode of lecture Identifying supporting ideas and examples Several studies investigated the factors affecting item difficulty of the TOEFL listening comprehension test. Nissan et al (1995) was the initiating study that investigated the stimulus-related and item-related features that contributed to item difficulty. They used TOEFL dialogue items and Equated Delta, an item difficulty index from classical test theory, to predict item difficulty. Seventeen independent features common in dialogue items were selected as variables. Using 283 TOEFL dialogue items, the study found five variables that have a significant impact on the Delta: word frequency, utterance pattern, negative in stimulus, explicit/implicit information, and role of speakers. Infrequent vocabulary was the word that was not on Berger's (1977) list. The utterance pattern showed that when the second utterance was in the form of statements, the items were significantly more difficult than those that ended in a question. More than one negative in the stimulus significantly increased the mean Delta value. The items that required test takers to identify implied information tend to be more difficult than those that required understanding of explicit information. When the speaker was not a casual acquaintance or a classmate, the item became significantly more difficult. In terms of the effect of the combinations of those five variables, the study found that combinations of variables had stronger impact on the item difficulty index than any individual variable. Combinations of three variables, word frequency, utterance pattern, and inference, had the greatest impact on the Delta. This study was mean ingful to identify the significant features of listening tests that could predict item difficulty. However, the features were selected based on the linguistic characteristics of texts and items without theoretical considerations. Thus, the generalization of finding could be limited to the effect of textual characteristics on item difficulty. Several studies followed their research frame. While Nissan et al used the items of the

Scholarship essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words - 4

Scholarship Essay Example ld involve taking up courses in specialized areas as in Economics, Finance, and Business Administration, I could project how dear costs may get in meeting the essential requirements of the chosen business program. Still, I would like to express fervent inclination and desire to be facilitated with adequate scholastic resources and flexible support of all forms once entitled by the scholarship privilege through the University of Texas at Dallas. With a GPA of 3.96, I am quite capable of applying mathematical and analytical comprehension having been engaged in tutoring Math on several fields of discipline involving business and science to fellow college students. There was even a period when the versatility of my knowledge was put to test when I handled tutorials in Chemistry, Physics, and Statistics besides the pre-Calculus requisites. This bundle of experiences as a well-rounded tutor and student majoring in business course at the same time has all the more taught me the essence of education, the impact of the quality of teaching, and the profound value in human relations. In the process, I learned about the significance of investment as viewed from a non-monetary context. To this extent, thus, I can gradually ascertain which subject matters are amply worthwhile to keep and which ones to leave behind as I seek pertinent directions toward academic ends. For this ground, I pledge to make the most of scholarship acquisition w hich I am looking forward to be granted during the Spring of 2012 at the University of Texas at

Robot Engineering Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1750 words

Robot Engineering - Essay Example In the past, they were known to be dreams in the field of science, but nowadays it is easy to find them in organizations and homes. They are used as inspiring tools for students and are commonly used for learning purposes (The HINTS Lab 2013). The main reasons they are used as learning tools is because their components are easily available and applicable in many disciplines due to the characteristics of their design. Also, their use is well known, and they are not strange to humans. However, robots will help us in our lives but it will not replace the human being. As a form of entertainment in the school of engineering, students are given a problem to solve as a form of competition. The winners are rewarded handsomely, and this motivates them in their creativity and innovation. Since there are many solutions to every problem, it is this trouble solving that has improved the living standards from living in caves to exploring the universe. Robot competition has improved the school of e ngineering, science, and technology since it is fun to the student and they enjoy it. It is their innovations in a competition that have attracted other investors to come up with other machines and equipment used in the production. In the current world, most developed countries are using computers in almost all institutions. In schools, e-learning is used where the lecturer teaches by the use of computer network; hence, there is no need for physical appearance. In the case of exams, students use computers and submit their assignments by the use of the Internet. This has simply reduced paperwork, transportation cost and other related costs in the teaching field. In the developing countries, technology has not yet been fully employed in many areas like education, industry, and medicine. This is because the cost of implementation is high, and the majority of the citizens are not conversant with it. In order to come up with robot engineering, learning institutions found that the normal teaching and textbooks are not giving the solutions to the problems. Many textbooks stress on calculation methods and theories and explain little on the physical things that are described by the theories. Issues like the best process for designing a particular machine, how the items are made, and how they perform certain tasks are not solved (The HINTS Lab 2013). Robots are of different kinds according to the task they perform. For example, there are those which look like human beings in their physical form. There are those which are moveable and those which can sense information from their surroundings. Historically, in the industrial sector, the growth of robot gadgets is a merge of two things: watchmaking and innovation in manufacturing apparatus. As early as 400-350 B.C, a Greek man, Tarentum, made a wooden sculpture of a pigeon which was triggered by a steam jet. Many other innovations like the iron man, magic fountain, frying iron eagle among others have been invented.

Sustainability in construction starts at the design stage of a Essay

Sustainability in construction starts at the design stage of a project. Identify and explain the main constituents of sustainabl - Essay Example Conclusion†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦..8 References†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. 9 Appendix†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦10 1. Introduction Sustainability is highly involved in the construction industry. Still, the use of the rules of sustainability in the construction projects has been a rather recent trend, if taking into consideration the effects of construction on the environment (Luff 2008). In addition, not all countries set sustainability as a term for accepting plans related to con struction projects (Luff 2008). UK is one of the countries that first recognized the value of sustainability in construction. It should be noted that the promotion of sustainability in construction has a series of implications, meaning especially the cost involved and the availability of expertise professionals for developing construction projects based on sustainability. Current paper focuses on a particular aspect of sustainability, as related to construction: the sustainable design and its constituents. The literature published in regard to this subject has been reviewed in explore the particular issue. It is revealed that sustainable design is a complex and demanding process which can be completed successfully only if it is appropriately supported in all its phases. 2. Sustainability design in construction 2.1 Key issues of sustainability in construction projects Sustainability, as part of a construction project, is commonly related to certain issues, such as ‘green buildi ng, energy and climate’ (Luff 2008, p.152). However, such approach is not correct. Sustainability could be effectively promoted through construction only if a series of additional issues would be addressed: issues such as ‘health, economics and transport’ (Luff 2008, p.152) should be considered as indispensable elements of sustainability, as the term is used in all sectors, not just in construction. Through a similar approach, the involvement of sustainability in construction has been related to the management of issues such as ‘the disposal of waste material used in construction projects and the use of environmental-friendly engineering systems’ (CERF 1996, p.95). The level at which sustainability will be involved in a construction project depends on the willingness of the project’s designer to incorporate sustainability in the project’s plan and the availability of resources required (CERF 1996). In order to understand the role of sus tainability in construction, it would be necessary to refer to the characteristics of sustainability in general. In the literature, sustainability has been defined as ‘the management of natural resource base†¦. and continued satisfaction of human needs for the present and future generations’ (Vogt et al. 2012, p.1). Dresner (2008) supports that sustainability should be defined as ‘the effort for securing the interests of future generations without setting in risk the interests of current generations’ (Dresner 2008, p.70). According to Morris and Pinto (2010) when being related to a construction project, sustainability refers to the various ‘issues from construction and throughout the life cycle of the building/ facility involved’ (Morris and Pinto 2010, p.124). In its own, sustainability is a term quite wide, incorporating issues related to ‘

LLb Law, Contract Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 3500 words

LLb Law, Contract - Essay Example The general rule pertaining to advertisements is that an advertisement is not an offer to provide goods but only an invitation to treat. In the case of Spencer and Harding (1870), this rule was deemed valid even if the word â€Å"offer† was used in an advertisement and the customer is regarded as making the offer when he shows an intention to buy the goods, which a retailer has the right to accept of reject. The classical will theory of contract is based upon the notion that all obligations of the contract arise out of the individual will of the parties contracting freely. Such a contract is enforced because it represents a bargain made between the parties on the basis of an exchange of goods having taken place. Therefore, in the case of Allsports sales to its customers, there has been an exchange of goods – the customers have purchased 200 pounds worth of goods in exchange for which they are to receive free tickets to the next test match between England and Australia i n Melbourne. But applying the principle of the advertisement being only an invitation to treat, no breach of law can be said to have taken place, as was established in the case of Pharmaceutical Society of GB v Boots Cash chemists 1952. A contract represents an exchange whereby an offer is made by one party which is accepted by another party. In this case, Allsports has made an offer to its customers which has been accepted by them. The advertisement placed by Allsports in the National Press in effect, makes a promise to a customer purchasing more than 200 pounds worth of goods, a free ticket to the test match. According to Charles Fried, a person who makes a promise is morally bound to keep it because that person has "intentionally invoked a convention whose function it is to give grounds - moral grounds - for another to expect the promised performance." (Fried, 1982, p16), thereby summarizing the concept of contract as a legally enforceable promise (Williston, 1920). The central

Advertising Agency Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Advertising Agency - Essay Example To create a successful advertising campaign to stimulate consumer interest, target groups, objectives, campaign communication and expectations, along with communication strategy must be considered for both companies.The target group for the first, smaller company is sportsmen who use food supplements as part of their regimen. The objective of the campaign is to increase sales to such sportsmen through the specialized selling shop, sales representatives, and over the internet. The advertisement should communicate to sportsmen that the food supplements sold by the small company are necessary for increased sports performance. The expectation of this advertising campaign is that sales will increase through the positive message about food supplements from this particular company. The company is small, therefore, the communication strategy is limited only by the company's advertising budget. Internet "ad banners' and small magazine advertisements in sportsmen magazines is a strategic and c ost effective way to successfully market this small company's food supplements.The target group for the second company, a large, multinational organisation is a wide variety of consumers, as this company's main staple is detergent. The objective of the campaign is to increase sales by keeping the company's detergent on the minds of consumers. The advertisement should communicate to all consumers that the detergent sold is superior to other detergents on the market. The expectation of this advertising campaign is that sales and demand will increase for the company's detergent. The company is large, and therefore, has a large advertising budget, so a mass media campaign will be continued, over the internet, broadcast media, and print media. Certain techniques are used by advertising agencies and/or advertisement producers to promote creative ideas, which include "formulating advertisement objectives; designing an advertising budget; making creative decisions; choosing a media strategy and evaluating the advertisement" (Shank, 2001, p. 325). Advertisement objectives are usually categorized as either direct or indirect. Direct ad objectives, such as advertising to end user consumers and sales promotion advertising, are designed to stimulate action among consumers of a certain type of product. On the other hand, indirect objectives create consumer awareness and provide information to consumers. After each objective has been determined, budgets are considered for the ad campaign. "Budget techniques such as competitive parity, objective and task, arbitrary allocation, and percentage of sales are commonly used by advertisers" (Shank, p. 325). The next step is to make the creative decisions that will identify the ideas and the concepts that will be used in the advertisement. In order to develop the concept for the ad, benefits of the product must be identified, ad appeals are designed, and ad execution decisions are made. Next, a media strategy is formed, including decisions about what medium for advertisement will be most effective and target the market consumer. Finally, the ad is evaluated to determine whether it will fulfill its purpose of increased awareness and sales. Task B Another method of understanding target groups, the core message of the advertisement, communication, and art elements of the advertisement is to observe two (2) examples of advertising campaigns. The first ad is for Calgon, a water softener that is touted to protect washing machines from sediment build up. The second is for Aquila, a mineral water that releases harmful chemicals from the body with every sip.

Orlando Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words - 1

Orlando - Essay Example It also explores the complex nature of cultural interpretations that emerge when roles change with emphasis on Orlando’s sudden transformation in the movie. Sally Potter’s film Orlando is a brilliant cinematic production that articulates several issues especially from a gender context as noted by Judith Butler, a cultural theorist in her essay. The film is set in the Elizabethan Age prior to Queen’s death. However, the Queen is keen to bequeath a young nobleman called Orlando a piece of land as gift to erect a castle for himself. Gender echoes significantly as observed by Butler in terms it being constituted over a certain period (Butler 519). In other words, gender is usually affirmed as a distinct identity institutionalized via repeated acts as displayed by Lady Orlando after discovering the shacking sex transformation of her husband, Orlando. It is a complex manifestation fuelled by language as the medium of communication in comprehending movements, gestures, and enactments of being. Accordingly, while Potter’s film casts the central characters as persevering against the backdrop of lawsuits especially in the pat riarchal era, the prospects of triumph are encouraging. Similarly, Lady Orlando’ lack of powers in matters concerning land rights is an epitome of identity crisis that usually afflicts societies such as the one depicted in the film. Overall, gender transformation expands possibilities for the social audience concerned with the fate and destiny of characters that include Princess Sasha, Clorinda, Favilla, and Euphrosyne. Another interesting issue emerging from the movie is tied to Butler’s assertion that the conception of gender identity is a belief inspired by appearance. In Orlando, for illustration, the clash of gender and historical situations such as the passing of Queen Elizabeth I displays the comfort in leadership that inspired Lady Orlando and her husband before his gender

HSA 530 wk 7 assignment 2 Coursework Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

HSA 530 wk 7 assignment 2 - Coursework Example In addition, Human Resource Management can be seen as process of bringing people and their organization together as a way of accomplishing their goals. In the health sector, the HRM plays various roles such as; legal and ethical matters of treatment, deals with the health and safety of all employees and patients, deals with labor unions in the health sector, job analysis and design of all employees, selection and recruitment of employees, deals with employee benefits, training and motivation and lastly is also concerned with the termination of employees. All these are the activities required to be accomplished by any HRM in any given hospital. However, the HRM has to follow some rules and regulations from the Joint Commission while in the line of duty. According to the law, any HRM in any health service must be accredited by the Joint Commission. This is in order to prove that they are capable of providing the highest level of performance in their line of duty. In addition, the HRM has to adhere to all standards of the Joint Commission and especially when hiring new members of staff. Similarly, he or she has to ensure that the organizations objectives are all met (Anand & BÃ ¤rnighausen, 2004). This is seen as to undermine the duties of the HRM since they do know all their responsibilities and the procedures they should follow. Notably, the HR is forced to follow the policies and procedure of the Joint Commission rather those that are provided by the hospital itself. Resultantly, the HRM is compelled to follow the job description outlined by the Joint Commission thereby foregoing those set by the hospital. Due to these c olliding obligations, the HRM has no choice but to follow the commission. Collaboration is manifested when employees work together towards achieving a given target. Therefore, collaboration is an essential aspect of growth in any organization and especially in the health sector (Boddy,

Jadelink Market Essay Example for Free

Jadelink Market Essay Comentario en Internet de Harvard Business Review : â€Å"The experienced entrepreneurial chief executive officer (CEO) of Jadelink International Limited strives to create a modern jewelry brand representing a new perception in jade. The CEO has achieved early success of growing sales rapidly and bringing Jadelink products to Shanghai, the trendiest city in China. But the company wants to expand business to the Asian and international luxury goods markets. This requires intensive capital to continue to build up the company scale. This case examines the consideration of venturing a new business in the China market, managing business growth and acquiring venture capital. It also allows discussion of factors leading to a successful entrepreneurship and dealing with business highly associated with industry tradition, people connection and product design and innovation†. Q1: How would you characterize Chung as an entrepreneur? What lessons did he learn in the past few years as an entrepreneur? See the comments on above Kent Chung us the CEO and founder of Jadelink International Limited, company based in HK. He is an accountant that worked for Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu (DTT) and then he started his own accounting Firm. He likes business and he likes to be an entrepreneur, he: * Sold cosmetics in HK. He learned that he invested a lot in expensive furniture there. * Sold Silk stocks (medias de seda) in Lo Wu * Published Puntonghua (mandarin) Books. * Opened a Cigar shop that currently still operates in a four stars hotel (with profits). * He lost HK $12 millions in an investment of an online education project. In this case, he learned that people want pleasure and looking good, not inspiration or education. The key point is to know the desires and trends of consumers. He summarized the lessons as follows: * Business startup: Team spirit, company infrastructure, work coordination, trust. * Entrepreneur: Hard work, multitasking, flexibility, pressure-resistance, independence * Drivers of a company: Clear business direction and product familiarization. Mastering financial foundation is important. Luxury Market Tea. First Chung bought a tea garden in 2004. Rich Chinese started to buy expensive/premium tea. Problems faced: Farmers knew what leaves are better and they keep them for themselves. Picking tea in an intensive labor, the farmer did well but the motivation dropped quickly once they make enough money to live leisurely. Manage farmers was hard. Jade Business Jade was more suited for Mr. Chang. His wife studied gemology and his younger brother’s father in law (el suegro de su hermano menor) was a veteran of the industry that known everything of sourcing and stones cutting. Jewerly market in China was booming. He founded the company Jadelink International Limited in 2005, with the investment of a Silent Investor, and his wife. Q2: What was the value proposition of Jadelink? Jadelink controlled all the operation flow Material Purchasing and processing. * Product design, manufacturing and retailing took place in different subsidiaries. * Team in HK: Design * Plant in Foshan (Guandong province): Cutting, slicing and polishing. * Several Contractors and Artisans in HK were outsourced (for final phases of the process) in order to avoid dependence of one of them. a) Jadelink conducted market research, ask for customers’ feedback, and design according customers taste. In addition, they have an exclusive technique in stone-cutting enabled Jadelink to use almost 2/3 of a jadeite rough to make the maximum number of jewelry items. b) Chung use to ask to candidates to probe their abilities spontaneously (designers mainly). Chung selected excellent professionals to build up the company. How did Chung succeed in starting up Jadelink? Once the company â€Å"Jadelink† was founded, Chung only took 25 months to set up: * A heading office and retail store in HK * A manufacturing plant in Foshan * 8 retail shops at vantage points in Shanghai * A company website and e-business in Japan * In 2008 there are more than 80 employees. Asi o mas exitoso 3. What did Chung do to establish the company? He has a very clear idea: Jade is precious for Chinese, but if one wants to buy jade jewelry, would the person think of any particular company The initial investment was approximately HK $ 30 million. * Chung $ HK 10million (cash) * Silent Investor $HK10 (cash) * Wong (wife) invested her stock of jade merchandise 4. Outline the current problems facing Jadelink. How did these problems arise? In 2006, Jadelink had sales of a couple of million HK dollars, which increased several times in 2007. In the first two months of 2008, when the sales volume was three times the sales for the same period in 2007, the business broke even. Chung was confident that no potential competitors could emerge fast enough to threaten Jadelinks business in a few years. Therefore, he wished not only to open 30 to 50 shops in all major cities of China but also to promote the brand internationally, expanding to Taiwan, Singapore and Japan, making Jadelink a leading player in the industry. Chung believed that Jadelink was good enough to survive well in the market with this existing scale. However, if he wanted to push the growth of Jadelink forward, he would have to expand the company within five years, which would require an estimated RMB100 million (about 16 million dollars) investment. As Jade industry is capital-intensive, there is too much capital being backlogged in the raw jadeite. The production period usually lasts long, which puts a lot of pressure on capital turnover. Besides, the payback period for a Jadelink shop is two years and it requires about six months for a counter in a department store. As a result, though the company has started to make profit, the existing amount of cash flow is not satisfying enough. More stores and years are required to obtain enough funding to implement Chung’s plan for expansion. If Chung chose to develop at a conservative pace, using the company’s retained earnings, he might miss the opportunity to grow with the expanding China market. Also, potential competitors could also emerge. Therefore, Chung decided to obtain external funding from venture capitalists and other forms of private equity. Internal management problems as the management system was not clear enough. Practices were not recorded, and there is a lack of clear guidelines and training manuals. Q5: What were the issues that caused Chung to obtain external funding? In the eyes of venture capitalists, his company was small and few investors understood the jade industry or recognized the market potential. Chung was concerned they were treaty Jadelink as on their pretty production divisions and simply put it under the existing structure without recognizing his vision and Jadelink’s strengths. Q2: Give recommendations for promoting the expansion of Jadelink. 1. Optimize the internal management system. Jadelink should record practices and set up clear guidelines and training manuals. As Jadelink expands, the company will come across more problems in daily activities. Some of the problems may be similar so there is no need to discuss how to handle it every time. With clear guidelines and training manuals, employees will know how to deal with the affairs under certain circumstances. 2. Attract professional staff. Since the policies〠customers’ preference〠culture and resources are different in varies countries, Jadelink should hire experts who have a good knowledge of each country in order to adjust to and broaden the market. Designers are supposed to know one country’s custom and culture well so that they can manufacture products which cater for the need of customers in different countries. 3. When searching for external funding, Chung had better choose the investors who would respect his effort and vision in addition to focusing on the monetary value of Jadelink. Thus the investors would feel an attachment to the company and be able to relate to their own affections for the company, and they will have the same target as Chung, which is to transform Jadelink into a world-famous brand. Otherwise investors may hold different opinions against the CEO, which would make the operation and management difficult.

How Aerial Travel and Cabin Pressure Adversely Affects the Human Body Essay Example for Free

How Aerial Travel and Cabin Pressure Adversely Affects the Human Body Essay The idea of humans traveling to the Moon or other areas out side of the Earths orbit is mostly scientific. However, when astronauts remain in space, having to re-balance the body to suit less or no gravity compared to the Earth could bring about many changes to the body. Scientists have found that the time required for recovery depends on the time spent in zero-gravity conditions. The longer one stays off of the Earths surface, the more damage can be caused. Strictly speaking, even a trip in an Airplane would require safety precautions to minimize damage to the body of this. For example, cabin pressure increased to maintain balance and prevent feeling different to a lower pressure. This essay will consist of two sections. The first will be of flight effects within the Earths hemisphere, and how to perhaps prevent damage to the body. The second, and longer section deals with space travel through Zero-gravity and effects of weightlessness on the body and the counter-measures to prevent damage to the body. Section 1, flight effects on the passengers, specifically dealing with cabin pressure: Airplanes fly at the cruising altitude of around 33000 feet, or approximately 10000 meters. Because the cruising altitude has a cabin pressure lower than air pressure on ground or even under sea-level, the oxygen availability is less and gases within the body expand. This causes the oxygen saturation level of the blood to reduce, which can lead to mild hypoxia, the reduced supply of oxygen to the tissues around the body. Due to the effects of hypoxia, alcohol consumption would affect the brain much more than it would on Earth. As the aircraft makes its decent back to Earth, air must be allowed to flow into the middle of the ear to equalize pressure differences. Passengers often can feel this change in air pressure. People with ear, nose and sinus infections are usually advised to avoid flying because of these changes in air pressure. Air travel in airplanes has less thank 20% humidity. This causes discomfort to the eyes, mouth and nose but does not risk the passengers health. This discomfort can be prevented by drinking liquids (water recommended) before and during the flight, and using skin moisturizers. Also passengers with short-sightedness or long-sightedness are advised to wear eye-glasses rather than contact lenses during flight as the contact lenses may dry out. In order to avoid de-hydration, passengers should drink non- alcoholic beverages. Section 2, how traveling through space affects humans Astronauts often experience Zero- Gravity during their travels through space. This zero gravity or micro gravity can bring about health concern to the body if astronauts remain in space for a long period of time. It would be much healthier for crews to live under artificial gravity. In order to prevent any biological changes in the body when experiencing zero gravity, scientists recommend a force of artificial gravity equal to a third of the Earths level of gravity. However, scientists still havent research affects of artificial gravity on humans but they know for a fact and there is an imbalance in the body due to the shifts of gravity levels. Artificial gravity prevents physiological changes from occurring. In zero-gravity, the body deteriorates. It takes less muscle to move around, so after a long period of time in space, muscles weaken so the body bends. Because there is no tension in space, muscles relax and after a while they atrophy as a result of disuse and eventually disappear. To prevent the fracture of bones, limbs and muscles, all space shuttles give the opportunity for astronauts to do rigorous exercise everyday to keep the muscles strong. Staying in Zero-gravity for months causes bones to lose mass and get thinner, as they are not carrying any weight. This means astronauts must go through rigorous trainings in the spacecraft everyday in order to keep muscle and bone strength. When a great deal of the crews precious time in space is spent exercising rather than doing science, money and potential knowledge are being squandered for the sake of health. It is a sacrifice, but a necessary one1 In space, receptors in the inner ear allow humans to sense direction. In space, ear receptors dont receive the same cues and the mind gets used to ignoring the inner ears feelings about balance. Hand-eye coordination, posture and balance are all affected by the disorientation of the mind. When astronauts return to earth, they are often overwhelmed by dizziness and have difficulty in maintaining balance. An example of the mind adapting to the new gravity less surroundings would be with Shannon Lucid, who was on board the Russian space Station MIR for six months. The astronaut said You just sort of get used to floating around but we also know that floating around is not all that astronauts do- they must resist the effects of micro gravity on the body. Also, no gravity means no resistance from growing, so some astronauts return to earth some 6 inches taller than when they left. It is only after a few months that they grow down/ shrink back to normal height. This is because of the unloading of spinal discs- because of lack of gravity, the discs in the spine are not holding up or don anything, so they tend to stretch rather than contract. Traveling through micro gravity causes bodily fluids to shift from the lower body to the cephalic area (head), and so peoples faces tend to swell and become rounder than they are on earth. When the brain senses a higher amount of blood than usual, it interprets the situation that there is now an overall increase in the total volume of fluids in the body. The brain responds by triggering the excretion of fluids, making astronauts prone to dehydration. Also, the fluid redistribution can shrink legs as the bones are weaker. These fluids pass through the kidneys, causing kidney filtration rate to increase, bone loss can cause Kidney stones. Fluids that leave the body include calcium loss and bone demineralization. The loss of blood plasma causes temporary Anemia upon the return to Earth. Some crew members get space anemia. Scientists are concerned about the affects of catching this disease on over all crew performance. Blood volume may decrease by 10 percent. The increase of fluids in the head causes the same feeling as when one has a cold and feels blocked in. in space astronauts begin to lose their sense of taste, causing the craving for strong flavorings in the food such as horseradish, mustard and taco sauce. Fluid loss, lack of exercise and diminished appetite cause weight loss as astronauts tend not to eat as much as they would on earth. Meals and exercise are planned to prevent excessive loss. Zero-gravity affects the cardio-vascular system. On earth we must cope with gravity, which sustains or slows down the blood-flow. In zero gravity, there is no gravity force, causing the heart to slow down due to the decreased demands of blood as it travels more freely. The immune system in the body is also affected by weightlessness. In space, one is exposed to illness as the immune response lowers and numbers of anti-bodies decrease after a long exposure to micro gravity. Approximately half of all astronauts are affected by this unpleasant syndrome which affects nausea, headache, lethargy and sweating (taken from NASA sources). Also, minor effects of weightlessness on the body include puffiness in the face, flatulence, weight loss, nasal congestion and often sleeping disturbances. Upon returning to earth, recovery time depends on the duration of stay in space. Muscles are weak and the body is not used to gravity forces, (causing them to feel dizzy) and so some astronauts are taken back in stretchers. This shows why astronauts need to be at the peak of fitness. If in the near future the human race would build space stations as tourist resorts, some would prefer hotels with zero-gravity and some would want partial gravity, which would bring about competition like hotels on earth, which would drive prices low. As gravity affects all biological, physical and chemical processes on earth, building an International Space Station gives new opportunity to study a world without gravity and its affect on animals and other living organisms. Observing the weightlessness effect on these living organisms could teach scientists about biological processes on earth, such as aging and osteoporosis. In the end, we can see that human travel through space is safer under artificial gravity when compared to astronauts being exposed to weightlessness, micro gravity or zero gravity (all three mean the same). Most of the problems mentioned such as fluid loss and muscle deterioration would not cause problems as long as the crew remained in a weightless environment. Remaining in a zero-gravity environment for over a long period of time could cause problems, however. In 1987, in the later stages of his 326-day mission, Russian Yuri Romanenko was fatigued both physically and mentally due to traveling through space. The majority of his day was spent sleeping regaining strength, in the meantime his bones were deteriorating. Some say if many like Romanenko stayed in space for much longer, he may not have survived re-entry to the Earth. Returning to Earth could cause problems as the body is much weaker due to demineralization and atrophy of the bones and shortage of red blood cells. Ones balan ce must now again be readjusted causing many astronauts to feel dizzy when back to a strong g force gravity on earth. Whether or not the large amount of time and money spent on keeping astronauts fit during space flight is worth the scientific findings is debatable. Physiological effects need to be prevented as much a possible. Again, this is usually prevented by rigorous exercise and micro gravity could still be a danger to the astronauts health. Many scientists believe that the benefits of transporting/sending out machines (robots) and humans to space, despite the health issues, are nothing compared to the huge benefit that society will receive. Humans will not be perfectly suited to living in a weightless environment, but that wont stop Astrobiologists and many other research firms like NASA from exploring space. The many benefits of space exploration such as technological knowledge and inspiration easily outweigh the negative aspects. Bibliography: Sources were from Newspapers, CDs, web sites and a large extract of a book in one of the web-pages. Most web sites accessed on the 11th December 2003 and 9th January 2004. 1) http://library.thinkquest.org/C003763/index.php?page=adapt02 2) www.permanent.com/s-nograv.htm 3) http://library.thinkquest.org/C003763/index.php%3fpage=adapt02 4) www.spacefuture.com/habitat/zerog.shtml 5) http://mos.org/cst/article/77/6.html 6) http://school.discovery.com/schooladventures/spacestation/basics/why.html 7) www.relaxincomfort.com/zerogravity_benefits.html 8) http://experts.about.com/q/2540/2677459.htm 9) www.uclas.ac.uk/facs/science/physastr/courses/space/ssyear1/sc1201.htm 10) http://www.who.int/ith/chapter02_01.html 11) Definitions from Microsoft Encarta 2003 Premium Suite CD 12) http://library.thinkquest.org/2606/Environmental_problems/water_pollution_-_effects.html (used for first idea of project) 1 http://library.thinkquest.org/C003763/index.php%3fpage=adapt02

Consumer Buying Behavior Towards Chocolates Consumption Marketing Essay

Consumer Buying Behavior Towards Chocolates Consumption Marketing Essay Through this descriptive study we have tried to analyze the various attribute that different buyer seeks while making purchase of chocolates of different size and quantity for different purposes altogether with significant differences in favorite brand; flavor; price and place of buying etc. Also, we have tried to examine the various degree of relationship that exist between the different attributes of the product that consumer favors and the brand loyalty that consumer have toward his liked brand. Also main emphasis is laid to find out what results in brand loyalty and is this relationship is significant with changing marketplace. Keywords: Chocolate, Consumer behavior, Consumption INTRODUCTION: If people thought that chocolates were just restricted to kids think again. According to a recent study conducted by a major chocolate brand in India the major consumers of chocolates apart from kids are teenagers and people between the ages of 15 35. Chocolates which were considered expensive once have now become affordable by one and all. Most of the chocolate brands in India produce chocolates in different sizes that are priced according to their sizes. Chocolates like Diary Milk and Five Star can be got for just  `  10. Chocolates in India are slowly and steadily substituting the mithai or traditional Indian sweets. Due to the increasing levels of social consciousness people prefer gifting well wrapped chocolate packets rather than sweets on occasions and festivals. Taking advantage of this situation the top chocolate brands in India are now concentrating on the packaging and are introducing well packaged chocolates for specific occasions.   OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to make generalization of consumers buying behavior towards the purchase of chocolates and than to measure the extent of brand loyalty, altogether with knowing what other marketing mix variable affect buyers decision regarding the purchase of chocolates. This study is a step toward generalizing the consumer purchase pertaining to following major set objectives: To know the customer behavior and to identify the level of customer satisfaction towards different brands of chocolates. To know the significant promotion mix that plays role in particular market. To test the brand loyalty among different gender of different age. CONSUMPTION OF CHOCOLATES IN INDIA Chocolate consumption is gaining popularity in India due to increasing prosperity coupled with a shift in food habits, pushing up the countrys cocoa imports. Chocolate market in India is pegged at Rs 2,000 crore and is growing at the rate of 18 20 per cent per annum. The global chocolate market is estimated around $80 billion. The Indian chocolate market is seen growing at a compounded annual growth rate of 15-20%. The Indian chocolate market is thought to be worth some R1,500 crore and has been hailed as offering great potential for Western chocolate manufacturers as the market is still in its early stages. Over 70% of chocolate consumption takes place in the urban areas. Chocolate consumption in the rural areas is negligible in India. Chocolate market is a highly concentrated market, with Cadbury having 70 per cent and Nestle around 20 per cent. The two giants have been instrumental in building up the chocolate market in India with huge investments in product development, advertis ing and brand building. Modern trade constitutes about 10% of the overall chocolate category, or roughly Rs 320 crore, according to Nielsen. Of this, brand Cadbury Dairy Milk has a share of 35%, while Bournville and Silk together account for 18%. Facts Figures: Indian Chocolate Industry as today is dominated by two companies, both multinationals. The market leader is Cadbury with a lions share of 70%. The companys brands like Five Star, Gems, Éclairs, Perk, Dairy Milk are leaders in their segments. Until early 90s, Cadbury had a market share of over 80 %, but its party was spoiled when Nestle appeared on the scene. The other one has introduced its international brands in the country (Kit Kat, Lions), and now commands approximately 15% market share.  Bars or molded chocolates like Dairy Milk, Amul, Nestle Premium, and Truffle account for 35 40 per cent of the total market (in terms of volume). The Count chocolates such as Five Star, Kitkat, Perk etc. is the next largest segment, accounting for 30 per cent of the total market. Panned chocolates enjoy 10 per cent of the total market share. In India, chocolates are consumed as excitement / enjoyment and not as snack. Therefore, more than 75 per cent of chocolate purchases are impulse. Ch ocolate consumption in India has nearly trebled since 2005, which is the reason why leading chocolate companies are investing in bringing premium brands such as Toblerone. Seasonal and boxed assorted chocolates have been experiencing the fastest growth, and sales are expected to expand 13% between 2010 and 2015. Cadbury India, which has been on an overdrive to promote its premium brands such as Cadbury Dairy Milk Silk and Bournville, is now rolling out Toblerone from parent Kraft Foods stable. The per capita consumption of chocolates in India, according to Chandramouli Venkatesan, director (snacking strategy), Cadbury India, has increased from 40gm per person per year in 2005 to 110-120gm. However, the launch of Toblerone is in line with Cadbury Indias business objective of growing the premium-gifting chocolate market. Gifting is a Rs 15,000-crore category in India, of which branded chocolate gifting is about 6%. Cadbury Indias share in branded chocolate gifting is 80%. Despite the fact that Indians have strong affinity for sweets, the size of domestic confectionery market is small on account of traditional consumer tastes and habits. The Chocolate market in India is a niche market penetrated largely in urban areas and per capita consumption is low as compared to those in developed countries of the West. Cadbury Indias main source of revenue is its 70% bite of the 23,000 tonnes Indian chocolate market. Advertisement Trends (AdEx division of TAM Media Research) Regional GEC took the second place with a 21 per cent share ad volumes of chocolates, followed by Hindi movie with 13 per cent share during January-November 2007. Cadbury India Ltd was way ahead of its peers with 66 per cent share followed by Nestle India Ltd and Parle Products Private Ltd during January-November 2007. As expected chocolate advertising skewed towards kids channels and regional GEC took the second position. Cadbury India Ltd rules chocolate advertising on television. Chocolate advertising rose by 30 per cent during January-November 2007 compared to January-November 2006. Maximum chocolate advertising was during Raksha Bandhan across 2005 and 2006 and January-November 2007. 17 per cent more advertising during third quarter 2007 (Raksha Bandhan festival) compared to first quarter 2007. LITERATURE REVIEW After having detailed study of Principles of marketing management book by Kotler and Keller, we came to know about consumer purchasing behavior and other various attributes of marketing mix like place and product strategy in alignment with promotion and pricing strategies and concept of brand loyalty with all the major attributes of a good brand. Beside this detailed study of various research papers and articles has also been made to know the practical applicability of the concept. Consumer leant about chocolate from many sources, mainly from friends and families, through advertisement and from their own experience. Whether a promotion and advertising hurt or help a brand is under-researched (Mela, Gupta Lehman, 1997). In the long-run, advertisement help brands by making consumer less price sensitive and more loyal. The purchase decision pertaining to particular brand and loyalty is a result of various attributes of the product. Advertisers must remember that advertising messages are interpreted differently between different genders (Maldonando, Tansuhaj Muehling, 2003; Hogg Garrow, 2003; Putrevu, 2001). Previous studies have proven that females were more likely to engage in elaboration than men (Maldonado Muehling, 2003). Hogg and Garrow (2003) found that women paid more intention about the details of the characters of an ad when asked to analyze advertising messages. They said that this may be explained by the fact that females have a greater tendency than men to consider external information and information related to others. Women are comprehensive processors who try to gather all available information about the product Advertisement can change consumers perception of a product in terms of attributes content and proportion and also influence consumers taste for attributes (Gwin Gwin, 2003). Brand preference and product attribute: Attributes are the characteristic or features that an object may or may not have and includes both intrinsic and extrinsic (Mowen Minor, 1998). Understanding why a consumer choose a product based upon its attributes helps marketers to understand why some consumers have preferences for certain brands (Gwin Gwin, 2003). Both tangible and intangible attributes of a product are equally important in choosing a product or brand (Myers, 2003). There is no evidence that certain attributes are more related to customer loyalty than others (Romariuk Sharp, 2003). Romariuk and Sharp (2003) suggested that marketers should focus more on how many attributes the brand should be associated with and not what attributes. For low-involvement products, consumers have more objective view of the nature of the attributes (e.g. food, cosmetics) because they are constantly being advertised and promoted. Price is another form of attribute used by consumers to evaluate a product. Price can sometimes be an indicator of quality; with a higher price indicating higher quality (Mowen Minor, 1998; Siu Wong, 2002). Consumers perceive that a higher price can be attributed to the higher cost of quality control (Siu Wong, 2002). Some consumers are highly price sensitive (elastic demand), whereby a high prices may shift consumers to competitive brands (Mowen Minor, 1998). Therefore price can have a positive or negative influence on customers. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY In this study the problem pertains to both State of nature and relationship among the variable i.e.; what is general behavior of consumer and than inferenceing the relationship that exist among the different variables to test the extent of brand loyalty and influence of one variable over the other from the data. As the study is related to the study of consumer behavior toward chocolates thats why the appropriate research design used is Fundamental descriptive with the use of both qualitative and quantitative design with static research approach. Formalized research design is also taken into consideration in order to test the Hypothesis framed. In this cross sectional co-relational field study data related to various independent variables dependent variables was collected from the stratified sample of 100 individuals, including males and females of different age groups constituting the sample. All the respondents were approached on the basis of simple random sampling in convenient ma rket place to ensure the accuracy precision of results. Personally administrated questionnaires were used for conducting the survey. INTERPRETATION AND ANALYSIS OF FINDINGS: In our study 48% (41) of respondent are males while 52% (45) of respondent were females. In this 57% (49) respondent are student, 16% (14) were professional, 13% (11) were businessman while 14% (12) respondent were females. 33% respondent includes people of age group 10-18, while other includes those of age 19-59. Q.1 who do purchase how frequently and how much they purchase Out of 86 respondents 13 (15%) respondents buy chocolates daily while 35 (41%) of them buy it weekly compared to 16 (19%) who buy them monthly against 22 (25%) respondents who buys it occasionally. In this 12% of males buy daily while 14% of female buy it daily. While 42% of males buy chocolates in a week against 33% of females, whereas 31% of females like to buy chocolate in a month compared to 22% of males. The result of collected sample reveals that 62% (53) respondent buys less than 5 chocolates a week, while 28% (24) people buys 5-10 chocolates a week. Only 3% of respondent said that they buy more than 15 chocolates an week against 7% who buys 10-15 chocolates a week. The analysis of sample data results that females buy more chocolates than males in a week as 38% of them buy 6-10 chocolates while only 17% of males do so. 73% of males generally buy chocolate in between 1-5 packs a week compared to 51% of female respondent. It is analyzed that 21% (18) of respondent purchases chocolate costing between 5-10 Rs while 47% (40) buys chocolate that cost 10-20 Rs. Chocolates costing 20-50 Rs is preferred only by 24% (21) of respondent and only 7 (8%) out of 86 respondent buys chocolates costing more than Rs 50. Price of chocolate significantly affect different gender differently as 22% female purchase chocolates costing 5-10 Rs against 19% males, while 49% of females prefers to buy those costing in between 10-20 Rs as against 44% of males. 32% Males buy chocolates those costing in between 20-50 Rs compared to 18% of female buying the same. Q.2 For whom it is purchased In collected sample 41% (35) respondent buys chocolates for self consumption against 29% (25) who never buys for them-self. Among them 44% (38) respondent purchases for children against 15% (13) who never buys for childrens. 28% (24) of respondent buys chocolates only for the gifting. The percentage of those who buys always and never for special occasion is approximately 27% and 24% respectively. Analysis shows that 42% of females always buy choclates for self consumption where only 39% of males do same for self consumption. When it comes for buying choclates for children than insignificant of gender both have same buying behaviour. Males seems to gift chocolate more than female as 20% of them buy it for gifting compared to 12% of females. Q.3 what motivate to buy chocolate In a study of 86 respondent it was found that 17% (15)of the respondent were very tempted by the display ads while 34% (29) respondent are moderately affected by the display ads while it has no affect on purchase decision of 13% (11) of respondent. In the undertaken study visual ads highly affect 41% (35) respondent while only 9% (8) of respondent are not affected by it. 24% (21) of respondent perceives affect of family and friends on their purchase decision while it has no affect on 5% (4) of respondent. This shows that family and friends has very high affect on purchase decision of chocolates buyers. Very insignificant numbers of respondent only 2% are affected by sales-man persuasion while it has no affect on 49% (42) of respondent. Also celebrity endorsement has only a moderate influence on purchase decision of respondents. Only 9% respondent are affected by celebrity endorsement compared to no affect on 16% respondents. 42% females are affected by visual advertisment against 39% of males while the display ads affect male more compared to females with 24% and 11% of significant impact on purchase decision respectively. Also family and friend affect females(27%) more against males (22%). Q.4 Important Attribute of the chocolate It can be inferred from study that taste is very important for buying chocolate 95%males 93% females buy chocolates because of taste. 54% males 49% females are showing neutral response to availability, while 27% males 36% females say that availability is most important for buying chocolate. 19% males 15% females have least impact of availability. Price is most important consideration for 29% males 33% females. It affects 42% males 29% females moderately. For 29% males 38% female price is least important. Packaging seems to impact purchase decision of 49% males 58% females moderately during purchase of chocolates. For 22% males 27% females packaging is most important consideration for buying chocolate. 29% males 15 % females have least impact of packaging. Q.5 Advertisement seems to have moderate impact on purchase decision irrespective of gender; however 29% males 22% females are mostly affected by advertisement. 17% males 24% females are not affected by advertisement. Q.6 Forms of chocolate impact 54% males 44% females moderately while 24% males 27% females are mostly affected by form of chocolate. 22% males 29% females are least impacted by form. 80% chocolate buyer seems to buy particular brand against 7% who do not care for the brand name Q.7 how advertisements persuade consumers to purchase Sample in hands results that 20% of people like to buy due to emotion in their advertisement while 43% of respondent love fun in advertisement while only 27% of people like knowledge in the promotion mix against 10% of people who likes music/jingle. So it can be concluded that people watch and are persuaded due to fun content in the advertising of the chocolate more than any other factor. While analysing data on the basis of gender it can inferred that males (81%) like fun and emotional content in advertisement than females(47%), while female (33%) prefer knowledge content more than males (19%). While 20% of female loves music and jingles in comparison no male like it. Q.8 which brand mostly prefered by consumers In the undertaken study it was found that Cadbury is the most favoured brand with 70% of share as against 21% of Nestle, 4% 5% respectively for Amul and miscellaneous ones. It can be inferred from the collected data that females (71%) like Cadbury more than males (68%), while males prefer nestle (24%) more than that of females (18%). While demand for Amul chocolates is found to be very insignificant and equal in both the gender. Q.9 effect of increament in rates The sample analysis say that 82% respondent are highly brand loyal as 18% of them will buy the costly pack of same and 64% of them will not show any change in demand pattern. Only 5% of respondent are in favour of shifting brand against 13% who will reduce the purchase quantity if the rate increases by 2-5 Rs. The deep gender-wise analyses of result show that both genders are equally brand loyal towards price sensitivity. Results show that around 64% (in both gender) will have no change in their purchase decision while 19% of them show positive relation toward buying as they will buy more thinking quality has improved. Also its seems that Law of demand (increase case) operate on males more than females as 15% 11% of them will reduce buying chocolate with increase in prices. Q.10 from where consumers mostly buy The sample study results show that 35% (30) respondent buys from local shop against 49% (42), 7% (6) and 9% (8) respondent who buys from store, cafeteria and malls respectively. In this study, males (42%) prefer to buy more from local shop than compared to females (29%) while female (55%) prefer to buy more from stores against males (41%). While the ratio of buying from malls and cafeteria reveals there is no significant impact of it on gender as both have almost equal choices in this regard. Q.11 what consumers do if preferred bran not available The analysis of sample data says that 9% of total respondent will buy costly pack of same brand while 56% of them will move to next shop. This shows that 65% of respondent are highly brand loyal against those 30% who will buy another brand or other (6%) will postpone their purchase decision. The analysis of sample data gives result that females are highly brand loyal than males as 71% of them will buy the costly pack of same brand or move to another shop compared to 59% of males if that particular is not available. While36 % males 24% female say that they will shift to another brand while 6% of both genders will postpone their purchase decision. Q.12 how much customer are loyal to specific brand To check brand loyalty and competitive affect we has analyzed that 15% of respondent will not buy any other brand while 53% of them may consider the same against 35% who are not sure of taking decision. Our study 41 male 45 female respondents were there if another brand of the same product appears in the market then 7% males 22% females will not buy the new brand. 64% males 44% females may be considering the new brand. 5% males 18% females shall not consider new brand. 24% males 16% females cant say they will buy new brand or not. CONCLUSION: In study of 86 respondents it was found that 95% (82) respondents like Cadbury Brand, 68% (59) respondents like Nestle Brand, 24% (21) of respondents like Amul Brand 1% respondents like Other Brand. So it can be concluded that Cadbury is most famous brand among others. 50% Cadbury buyers like to buy Dairy milk out of 82 respondents 15% Cadbury buyers like to buy 5 Star out of 82 respondents. 10% Cadbury buyers like to buy Perk out of 82 respondents. So, the findings from study that most preferred chocolate are Dairy Milk out of Cadbury buyers. 36% of Nestle buyers like to buy Kit -Kat out of 59 respondents. 24% of Nestle buyers like to buy Éclairs out of 59 respondents. 20% of Nestle buyers like to buy Munch out of 59 respondents. 52% of Amul buyers like to buy Chocà ³ Mines out of 27 respondents. 48% of Amul buyers like to buy Chocà ³ Zoo out of 27 respondents. To be concluded that Kit -Kat and Chocà ³ Mines is most preferred chocolate in Nestle and Amul respectively. Also, it was found that 59% (51) of respondents like chocolate flavor, 23% (20) likes coffee flavor 20% (17) respondents like nuts flavor. So it can be concluded that chocolate is the most profitable flavor coffee second most profitable. APPENDIX 1. Ho = their exist no relationship between the gender who buy chocolate for self consumption, children, gift. Ha= Gender have significant impact on the purpose of buying chocolates. Gender Child Chi-Square(a,b) .186 13.000 Df 1 2 Asymp. Sig. .666 .002 Gender Gift Chi-Square(a,b) .186 34.907 Df 1 2 Asymp. Sig. .666 .000 Gender Self Chi-Square(a,b) .186 2.116 df 1 2 Asymp. Sig. .666 .347 After applying Chi square test on the data it is found calculated value of test is less than the tabulated one. It means that Ho is accepted thats prove that their is very insignificant difference in perception of both the gender and thus both gender buy chocolates for self consumption, gifting and children in a equitable amount. APPENDIX 2. Ho = their is no relationship in gender and frequency of buying chocolates Ha= Gender affect frequency of buying chocolates. Gender How Often Chi-Square(a,b) .186 13.256 Df 1 3 Asymp. Sig. .666 .004 our Ho is selected and Ha is discarded. Thus use of chi square test proves here that both the gender have similar frequency in buying chocolates. APPENDIX 3. Ho= Cost do not affect the purchase decision of diferent age group Ha = different age group have different perception towards cost Age Cost Chi-Square(a,b) 45.209 26.279 Df 30 3 Asymp. Sig. .037 .000 Here in this study it is found that the age and cost have significant relationship among them. It means different age group have different reaction towards different price levels. Thus our Ha is accepted and Ho is rejected. APPENDIX 4. Ho=Visual ads do not have different on different gender Ha=Visual ads affect different gender Gender Visual Ad Chi-Square(a,b) .186 32.256 Df 1 4 Asymp. Sig. .666 .000 Here Chi Square test show that tabulated value of Chi square is greater than calculated thats why our Ho is accepted, which means that there is no relationship betwen gender and visual ads. APPENDIX 5. Ho= The cost of chocolate do not affect the brand purchase Ha=The price of chocolate affect the brand purchased Cost Brand Chi-Square(a,b) 26.279 85.558 Df 3 2 Asymp. Sig. .000 .000 Here Chi Square test show that tabulated value of Chi square is greater than calculated thats why our Ho is accepted, which means that there is no relationship between cost and brand purchased.

Womens Role During World War II :: essays papers

Womens Role during WWll World War II was the largest and most violent armed conflict in the history of mankind. It has affected millions of people around the world both, directly and indirectly. Even though half of a century separates us from the unforgettable event, it left horrible memories especially in those who saw, felt and experienced World War II which was waged on land, on sea, and in the air all over the earth for approximately six years. Whether it’s a battle, hospital, or holocaust, there are so many stories from the survivors, who can teach us not only about the profession of arms, but also about military preparations, global strategies and combined operations in the coalition war against fascism. My interviewee went through a lot during World War II and sharing her amazing story left me evaluating her words for a long time, rethinking and still not willing to imagine the pain. She was one of the 150,000 American woman served in the Women’s Army Corps during the war years. They were one of the first ones to serve in the ranks of the United States Army. She recalls being teased a lot about being a young woman in a uniform but was very proud of it. Women finally were given the opportunity to make a major contribution to the national affair, especially a world war. It started with a meeting in1941 of Congresswoman Edith Nourse Rogers and General George Marshall, who was the Army’s Chief of Staff. Rogers asked General to introduce a bill to establish an Army women’s corps, where my interviewee, Elizabeth Plancher, was really hoping to get the benefits after the World War II along with other women. ( Since after World War I women came back from war and were not entitled to protection or any medical benefits. ) Mrs. Plancher was a strong-willed woman, dedicated to her goals. She was waiting for this day to happen and it did finally making many women happy. The bill was introduced in May, 1941. At first it failed to receive consideration but General helped to get the bill through the congress. After all the paper work, â€Å"auditions† were passed. Applicants had to be between 20-40. Elizabeth was 22 at that time. She was 5'4, about 120 lbs which suited the position. Only 1,000 women were accepted into the special Women's Army Auxiliary Corps ( WAAC).

Essay --

For years, media companies have being manufacturing baby learning products and they make claims that they produce specific developmental benefits. Parents have believed that their babies can learn just from watching a video repeatedly for a long time or when they are reading baby books to their babies. This lead parents to always obsessively look for ways to prove that their babies are the best among their peers. So for these parents to accomplish this, they subject their babies as early as 3 months to different baby learning products that claims to boost up a baby’s learning abilities. Learning is a â€Å"change in an organism’s behaviour or thought as a result of experience† (Lilienfeld, Lynn, Namy, Woolf, Cramer, & Schmaltz, 2013 p.210). An example was a research carried out by (Neuman, Kaefer, Pinkham, & Strouse, 2014) on randomly assigned 61 of 117 babies between the ages of 9 to 18 months with a program called Your Baby Can Read, which included flashcards, DVDs and word books. This research was carried out for seven months and the researchers found out there is no difference between...

Cinematic Techniques in Nabokovs Laughter in the Dark Essay -- Movie

Cinematic Techniques in Nabokov's Laughter in the Dark    Vladimir Nabokov's Laughter in the Dark takes the movies for its style as well as its subject matter. In recounting the farcical tragedy of director Albinus and starlet Margot, Nabokov imports a wide variety of techniques and imagery from the cinema into the novel. But Nabokov's "cinematic" style is not analagous to that of a screenplay: the polished prose is always tinged with the novelist's trademark irony. Gavriel Moses notes that    Nabokov's most consistent reaction to popular films in their public context is his awareness that the film image... is overwhelming in its insistent claim to presence and, as a consequence, to truth. But in formula films perceived uncritically or absorbed inertly, film tends to displace... what is really important in life and to impose its own schematic simplifications upon life's teaming and idiosyncratic details. (62)    Virtually all the characters in Laughter in the Dark take their understandings of life from the film industry. Their ideas and impressions, therefore, tend to be rather banal, predictable, and superficial. Nabokov's people never surprise the reader, never think unusual thoughts, never reveal unexpected depths. In contrast to the complex psyches found in Tolstoy and Chekhov, for instance, Albinus, Rex, and Margot are cartoons, with speech balloons floating above their heads. Indeed, even their thought processes resemble the interior monologues of characters in Hollywood films. So, for example, when Nabokov transcribes Albinus's silent thoughts, he employs a standard voice-over template:    Albinus, his queer emotions riding him, thought: "What the devil do I care for this fellow... ...chcock: Fifty Years of His Motion Pictures. New York: An Anchor Book, Doubleday, 1992. Originally published by Hopkinson and Blake in 1976.    Works Consulted Nabokov, Vladimir. Lolita. New York: Vintage Books, A Division of Random House, Inc., 1999. First published 1955. Raguet-Bouvart, Christine. "Camera Obscura and Laughter in the Dark, or, The Confusion of Texts." Translated from the French by Jeff Edmunds. Seifrid, Thomas. "Nabokov's Poetics of Vision, or, What Anna Karenina is Doing in Kameraobskura." Copyright 1996 Board of Trustees of Davidson College. Originally published in Nabokov's Studies #3 (1996). http://www.libraries.psu.edu/iasweb/nabokov/seifrid1.htm Simon, John. "Vladimir Nabokov: The Russian Years." From The New Criterion Vol.9, No.6, February 1991. http://www.newcriterion.com/archive/09/feb91/nabokov.htm   

Finance Manager

Fiscal Policy in Kenya: Looking Toward the Medium-to Long-Term By Kamau Thugge, Peter S Heller, and Jane Kiringai[1] Executive Summary Kenya’s authorities, in articulating their vision for the next two decades of Kenya’s development, understood clearly that fiscal policy would need to play a critical role in influencing the pace at which the economy will grow and its capacity to deal with the key challenges that will arise over the next several decades.Domestic policy challenges include a high population growth, rapid urbanization, significant weaknesses in infrastructural capacity, inadequate levels of investments, and pressures for decentralization. External challenges include security risks as well as an uncertain global economic growth environment. Fiscal policy will not only affect macroeconomic stability, but also whether Kenya can transition to a higher economic growth path, reduce its high poverty rate, and address its substantial income, asset, and regional ine qualities.The paper by Thugge, Heller and Kiringai examines whether Kenya’s medium-term fiscal policy strategy is responsive to addressing the potential scale of the challenges confronting Kenya, particularly given the inevitable uncertainties assicuated with the global economic environment. It also takes stock of the impact of recent developments on the viability of the original strategy. Kenya is likely to face in the next two decades and the scope of its policy goals for this period.Section II will briefly identify both the domestic policy challenges that Kenya’s fiscal policy-makers must address in coming years as well as the different potential external policy environments within which these policies must be formulated. Section III reviews the Government of Kenya’s (GOK) fiscal policy strategy, as broadly embodied in its recently issued long-run perspective–Vision 2030, but more concretely in the Medium Term Plan for 2008/09-2012/13 and the Medium-Te rm Budget Strategy Paper (MTBSP) for 2009/10-11/12.In particular, it will examine the economic and institutional assumptions underlying this strategy; the policy choices made in terms of the balance between the roles of the public and private sectors; the choice among alternative public spending priorities; the way in which possible downside risks are addressed; the approach to financing fiscal initiatives; and the sustainability of the fiscal and debt strategy. Section IV will then assess whether the GOK’s chosen policy strategies appear both responsive to the long-term policy challenges identified in Section II and robust to the downside risks in the external economic environment.II. Medium to long-run challenges In Vision 2030, Kenya aspires to achieve middle-income status by 2030 through the realization of a 10 percent per annum real growth rate for the period 2012-2030. This is a highly ambitious objective although not an unreasonable aspiration, given the importance of Kenya to the regional economy of East Africa and the many assets that Kenya possesses in terms of its human capital and its industrial, service, and tourism potential.But achieving this goal will require that Kenya successfully pursue disciplined and ambitious policies that will confront the many domestic and external policy challenges it now faces. It will also require a bit of luck and a bit of skill by Kenyan policy-makers in adapting to the uncertain global economic policy environment that will undoubtedly emerge in the next two decades. Fiscal policy will need to be finely balanced if Kenya is to achieve the Vision 2030 objectives.It must facilitate rapid growth—both through the provision of needed infrastructure and human capital—while still being responsive both to the demands of the population for basic public services and the potential downside risks that may emerge. Yet fiscal policy must also be sustainable. Fiscal space will be precious if the various expen diture objectives are to be met without compromising macroeconomic stability or raising doubts about Kenya’s solvency. If growth proves less than anticipated—as occurred in 2008 and as expected in 2009—the needed fiscal space may prove inadequate to finance the required government outlays.Under these circumstances, unrestrained recourse to additional borrowing could jeopardize Kenya’s solvency and crowd-out its private sector. a. Domestic policy challenges to which fiscal policy should respond There are several important obstacles that could impede Kenya’s progress toward achieving the high growth rate targeted through 2030. First, after years of neglect, Kenya has only recently begun to address the inadequacy of its infrastructure for the realization of a modern, 21st century economy.Deficiencies exist in terms of Kenya’s port facilities, its trunk and secondary roads, its railroad system, its energy plant, and in the availability of clean water and sanitation facilities. While telecommunications has been the bright light of the last several years, there is still much to be done to make the system fully accessible and the proposed undersea fiber-optic cable, The East Africa Marine System, should help in this regard. Vision 2030’s emphasis on rebuilding and creating a productive infrastructure is rightly supported by international observers (e. . , in the IMF’s 2009 staff report) and appears responsive to this challenge. [2] But creating this infrastructure will be costly and could easily outstrip the domestic financial capacity of the government if it were to go it alone, justifying the government’s interest in seeking public-private partnerships as well as external financial support. Second, while Kenya is blessed with relatively a high quality and deep base of human capital, it has yet to find ways to deploy it more efficiently.Among African countries, Kenya has always been known for the high as pirations of its population for education and the drive of its citizens for self-betterment. But the productivity of Kenya’s educational system has long been a source of concern, and the continuing weaknesses in the health system have meant that infant and mortality rates are still too high, that malaria still poses a heavy health burden, and that the AIDS epidemic has cost Kenya significant losses among its most productive citizens. 3] The success of many Asian countries in realizing high growth rates when they were at Kenya’s stage in the demographic transition derived from their ability to productively employ the rising share of the working-age population. Strengthening the quality and exploiting the productive use of Kenya’s human capital, particularly looking forward, must thus be a high policy priority. Third, governance concerns remain an obstacle to Kenya fully exploiting its growth potential through foreign investment inflows.While the World Bankâ€℠¢s â€Å"Doing Business Indicators† suggest some improvements in creating the conditions for a receptive foreign investment climate (with Kenya ranking among the world’s top ten reformers in 2006/07), Kenya still ranks only 82nd on this index out of 181 countries, and ranks 147 out of 180 countries in terms of Transparency International’s index of perceptions of corruption for 2008. [4] Prioritizing and effectively carrying out the necessary institutional reforms, while not requiring substantial fiscal resources, may still prove costly and difficult in political economy terms.More important, it may play a critical role in determining whether Kenya can meet its ambitious investment goals in infrastructure, given that they are to be primarily financed from private sources through public-private partnerships. Fourth, to achieve its target growth, Kenya will not only need to raise significantly its pace of investment (from an average of 19% of GDP in 2005/06 to 2007 /08 to over 30% by 2012/13), but also to maintain the relatively low incremental capital-output ratio (ICOR) of about 3 that it has experienced over the last few years.The latter may prove difficult. Among low and low-middle income countries, an ICOR of about 4 seems the norm (see World Bank, 2009). For the few non-oil-based countries in the world that have experienced growth rates as high as 10% for a sustained period, investment rates have been in the range of 40% of GDP plus (e. g. , China), reflecting a loss of efficiency in capital investment (and thus a higher ICOR). For Kenya to realize more efficiency from its investments, it must demonstrate a concomitant capacity to mobilize human capital resources effectively (e. . , rectifying both the under- and overstaffing of different public service activities), efficiency in the utilization of capital inputs, adequate attention to routine and periodic maintenance of existing infrastructure and a focus on investments that are of part icularly high return (the latter influencing the appropriate structure of Kenya’s public and private investment programme). Linked to these issues is the low absorptive and implementation capacity in the key infrastructure line ministries, particularly for foreign-financed projects.A key challenge that will determine whether the desired change in the composition of expenditure materializes will be the actual implementation rate of the development budget. In the past, actual expenditures have fallen well short of budget estimates, and in particular, absorption of donor development assistance has been very low—usually below 50 percent of budgeted amounts. Increasing the implementation capacity of the infrastructure ministries, and especially that of the Ministry of Roads and Public Works, will, therefore be critical.Fifth, generating the required financing for a higher level of investment will be a further challenge. A sound fiscal policy will constrain how much can dire ctly be provided from the budget, leading to the acknowledged need to rely on the private sector, domestic and external, for the remaining financing. The modalities by which Kenya provides incentives and deals with the risks associated with public-private partnerships, and improves governance, will determine the extent of foreign capital participation in Kenya’s investment programme.Six, despite the progress made in reducing poverty incidence from 57% in 2002 to 46% in 2006 (MTBSP, paragraph. 14), Kenya still faces high income and asset inequality as well as significant regional inequality in incomes and assets. While rapid growth over the next two decades would do much to reduce absolute poverty levels, the number of absolute poor will still remain substantial. Together with continued high inequality, this would constitute a significant drag, in political economy terms, on Kenya’s ability to obtain popular support for an ambitious resource mobilization and savings eff ort.Certainly, unless addressed, income inequality will constrain growth in the country, dampen the scope for poverty reduction and create an environment for social and political unrest. Seventh, and linked to the latter point, current fiscal decentralization efforts to address regional inequality through the use of a devolved funds mechanism are subject to potential vulnerabilities. In principle, through community-based projects, such an approach can have a positive impact on grass roots[5] support.However, slippages in governance and accountability, efficiency, or effectiveness in the use of devolved funds could undermine their potential impact, with political pressures engendering spending programs that would not normally meet benefit-cost criteria or address the existing regional maldistribution of resources. In the medium term, three potential threats to the effectiveness of a devolved funds approach require attention.First, is the poverty-weighted allocation criteria, which ef fectively incentivises constituencies to be ranked poor in order to qualify for a higher share of the devolved resources. Second, the provision of such ‘free’ budgetary resources may dampen revenue generation efforts at the local level. Third, the disconnect between community-based projects and the provision for operations and maintenance within the central budget can limit efficiency and effectiveness in the use of these funds[6].All of the above factors might be considered as relevant in formulating current budgetary policies. But Kenya also confronts other future developments that can easily undermine the long-term capacity of the economy to sustain rapid growth. These include: †¢ The rapid rate of urbanization: By 2025, Nairobi and Mombasa will have to invest in urban infrastructure (e. g. , housing, water, sewage, transport, schools and health facilities) to accommodate a virtual doubling of their populations. 7] The size of other urban centers will more than double by 2025 (from 3. 8 million to 9. 3 million). [8] Overall, the urban population is projected to triple to 21-22 million. Such urban infrastructure investments are likely to be of a lower overall productivity (thus implying a higher ICOR), further constraining the prospects for achieving the high efficiency level required to realize a 10% annual growth rate. †¢ The continued high overall population growth rate: Kenya’s fertility rate of 5 is high.The population aged 5-14—the prospective primary and secondary school-age groups—is anticipated to rise during 2005-2030 by at least 60 percent (more than 5. 2 million children). This highlights both the prospective increase that will be needed in spending on Kenya’s primary and secondary school system and the substantial expansion that is likely to be needed for tertiary education facilities. The latter will be particularly costly, and will put enormous pressure on the education budget (with one tertia ry student costing the equivalent of 40 primary students).Without policies that will encourage a reduced fertility rate, Kenya’s capacity to create fiscal space by shifting the composition of government expenditure towards growth-enhancing investments will be severely limited. †¢ The pressures for job creation arising from population growth: In the next 6 years, Kenya’s education system will produce at least 14 million new school leavers seeking jobs. While the public sector cannot be responsible for their employment, government expenditure policies will need to be sensitive to the job creation possibilities associated with the realization of the government’s expenditure program.This burgeoning employment challenge also highlights the importance associated with a successful transition to a high growth policy framework, since this will be the key to meeting the continuing pressure for job creation over the medium- to long-term. †¢ Cost pressures in the public sector: as with most middle-income and industrial economies, rapid productive growth in the economy typically will outpace productivity growth in the government sector.As wages in the public sector respond to market wage developments in the private sector, this will create cost-push pressures on public service delivery (particularly in the social sectors) (the so-called â€Å"Baumol effect†), pushing up the recurrent cost budget and generating further need for a higher revenue share. †¢ The looming costs of climate change: Recent World Bank reports suggest that Kenya is among the countries most at risk from an increased frequency and intensity of drought conditions.Addressing the potential deleterious effects on agricultural productivity will require a combination of intensified investment in water-control systems that promote enhanced efficiency in the use of water resources; a further shift in the role of nonagricultural outputs (and thus a capacity to become co mpetitive in earning the foreign exchange required for a higher level of food imports); and new R&D efforts at promoting agricultural techniques robust to drought and uncertain precipitation conditions.Given the importance of Mombasa as Kenya’s principal port, the probability of a sea level rise raises the question of when it will become necessary for Kenya to undertake the investments required to cope with the potential longer-term damages to Mombasa and what alternative approaches might be needed to ensure a continued viable port capacity. Less of a challenge and more of an opportunity is the possibility that Kenya might be able to exploit its comparative advantage with respect to solar and geo-thermal energy generation, and earn additional export and fiscal revenues from selling carbon credits to other high-emission countries. The budgetary risks associated with recognized contingent liabilities: the most obvious include those associated with the pay-as-you-go budgetary fu nding of civil service pensions; the potential for the National Social Security Fund (NSSF) to be relatively unfunded; and the possibility of losses associated with the parastatal sector. The anticipated effort by the Government to seek public-private partnerships in a number of infrastructure projects carries with it the potential for additional contingent liabilities. b. External policy challengesKenya’s ability to achieve its Vision 2030 objectives is not wholly subject to its own making. The global financial crisis which commenced in 2008 has adversely impacted Kenya, and highlighted the importance of external factors in influencing the growth of an economy. Kenya is vitally integrated within the global economy, being dependent on external commodity markets for its exports and critical energy imports, sensitive to the state of global tourism markets, significantly reliant on remittances, a recipient of aid flows, and ambitious in its pursuit of both direct foreign investm ent flows and possible external credits.In geopolitical terms, it has already experienced terrorist incidents and is a vital transport hub for many important countries in Central Africa. But of course the future is uncertain, particularly if one is considering policy options looking out more than 20 years. There is, thus, an important argument for seeking a policy program that is robust to potential downside risks and the possibility of very different external environments. One approach to exploring the robustness of the Vision 2030 fiscal strategy is to examine its viability in the context of alternative scenarios of the future.In 2005, the World Bank undertook just such an exercise to consider alternative scenarios for how the global economy might evolve through 2020. Each of the three scenarios elaborated were meant to constitute â€Å"relevant, compelling, plausible, and logically consistent†, but, importantly, divergent stories of what the global economy might look like in 2020. As emphasized by the Bank, â€Å"no single scenario will ever come true in its entirety, but if it is to be a valuable stone against which to sharpen one’s strategy, one must believe it just might! Box 3 provides a brief summary of these three different worlds, and section IV will examine more concretely the robustness of Vision 2030 in the context of these scenarios. At this point, what is important to emphasize are the key external policy factors to which the success of Vision 2030 might prove sensitive, and the way in which these scenarios highlight potential issues to which Kenyan policy makers might need to be responsive. Among the key factors that could affect Kenya’s prospects, the following appear most relevant: Robustness of global growth: Kenya’s capacity for mobilizing the fiscal resources required to implement its public investment program (and equally the prospect for the private sector to also achieve the targeted growth in its investment share) will be strongly influenced by the pace and structure of global growth. Given its dependence on external commodity and tourism services, a slower global growth scenario (such as in the GU scenario) would probably be reflected in slower Kenyan growth, lower fiscal revenues, and the need for a smaller budgetary envelope.How would the budget be prioritized in such circumstances? Would the same infrastructure and human capital investment priorities be relevant under a lower global growth scenario? Certainly, with the pace of population and urban growth (not to mention climate change) not affected by external factors, the pressure would be to cutback on precisely those investments most likely to generate additional growth and employment!Moreover, if global growth were to be dominated by a higher share derived from emerging markets, would this adversely affect Kenya (perhaps through reduced tourism from industrial countries)? Would reduced dynamism in the US and European economies imply a lower level of concessional financing, or would Kenya be able to obtain such assistance from alternative sources (e. g. , China and India)? With changes in the pace or sources of global growth, would Kenya still be able to realize the currently anticipated level of direct foreign investment flows?Would these derive from different sources and if so, would they be directed to the same sectors? |Box 1: Alternative Scenarios for the World of 2020 | | | |The following provides a brief summary of how these different worlds will appear, with our focus principally on the character of | |the alternative potential external economic environments facing Kenya. | | |Affluence, Ltd. (AL) | |Years of rapid, US-centered, economic growth will nearly double world GDP, an annual increase of more than 4 percent. States have | |shifted their focus from guaranteeing outcomes to providing opportunities.Rapid innovation and new technologies enable continuous | |improvements in productivity, whic h global corporations spread around the world as they expand. But economic success is not | |universal. Forty less competitive countries have been left behind due to geographic isolation, poor governance, small market size, | |or lack of strategic relevance. For most major economies, however, the United States has guaranteed political stability and open | |trade-conditions that have encouraged the creation of massive amounts of wealth. |Globalization Unwinding (GU) | |Through 2020, economic growth has been slow worldwide, averaging less than 2 percent for more than a decade. Weaker states have | |collapsed, as economic pressure translates into domestic unrest, while other states have resorted to authoritarianism or populism | |in order to stay in power. Costs of military interventions, energy price volatility, and years of deficits brought a sharp | |contraction in the US economy, and the consequent dollar crisis triggered a global economic downturn.Europe and Japan lacked the | |dy namism to lead the world out of recession, while the growth engines of China, India, Korea, and other â€Å"emerging economies† all | |sputtered-as did those of Russia and Latin America. Most developing countries have proven unable to mitigate the worst effects of | |the downturn. A deep-seated cynicism about the value of free markets prevails in the world, and economic decisions are generally | |focused on short-term returns. Protectionism grew rapidly following the downturn, and the path to recovery looks difficult. | | |Competing Horizons (CH) | | | |Large emerging markets of China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and much of Southeast Asia have sustained rapid long-term | |growth—particularly in comparison to older industrialized economies—and a second wave of developing countries has joined their | |ranks. The developing world accounted for almost two-thirds of global GDP growth between 2005 and 2020.Regional economic powers | |have started to contest US primacy in their regions, and in global forums. Poles of cutting-edge R&D have emerged, with growing | |numbers of firms from these high-growth countries rivaling the multinational companies from the United States, Europe, and Japan. | |Many other developing countries have grown rapidly following improved policies and governance and benefiting from rising volumes of| |global trade. However, rising tensions between Old World and New World powers seem inevitable in the medium term.Despite strong | |networks of trade and continued rising demand for raw materials and basic commodities, growth in parts of the developing | |world—particularly in parts of Africa—remains low. In addition, the environmental costs of broad-based growth are significant: | |accelerating environmental degradation and severe resource constraints for water, strategic minerals, and energy are the order of | |the day. | | | |* Source: World Bank, Rehearsing for the Future: the World and Development in 2020 (Wa shington DC, 2006) (www. worldbank. rg/2020) | †¢ Scale of security threats: the alternative scenarios highlight the potential for different degrees of ethnic, terrorist and regional security tensions. Kenya may thus need to be prepared for the possibility of a higher level of security-related military outlays than presently envisaged under Vision 2030. Depending on the extent of external financial support to deal with terrorism and regional security threats, this may prevent the realization of the current strategy to shift funding away from such â€Å"other sectors† for the purpose of creating fiscal space for social or growth-oriented outlays. Nature of the trade environment: the extent to which further global trade barriers are reduced, or rather shifted towards bilateral or regional trading arrangements, may potentially influence the pace of growth and potentially the sources of Kenya’s principal comparative advantage, again influencing both the prospects for revenue mobilization and the focus of the investment programme. †¢ Importance of governance concerns: Were there to be a shift in the global economic center more towards emerging market countries, there might be a reduced incentive for Kenya to focus as much on governance issues.However, given the possibility of the AL scenario also arising, and given the merits on political economy grounds for strengthening Kenya’s governance and regulatory system (particularly given the increased role envisaged for PPPs), current strategies would appear robust to the alternative possible scenarios. †¢ Pace of technological change: Alternative scenarios also suggest differences in the future pace of technological change. This could be important, particularly with respect to certain kinds of infrastructure (e. g. , in the energy and possibly the ICT sectors).Would the nature of infrastructure investment decisions be influenced by the possibility that newer and more advanced technolo gies might make existing infrastructure or technologies inappropriate? All of these uncertainties raise the question of whether fiscal policy, to be robust under alternative scenarios, should be more conservatively managed, particularly with respect to the level of nonconcessional borrowing that would be appropriate in financing the investment program (or more pointedly, in the level of any fiscal debt anchor that might be considered in managing fiscal policy).They also raise questions as to the core investment programme which would appear appropriate, given the uncertainty as to which scenario might eventuate. III. Kenya’s fiscal strategy underpinning the Vision 2030 A. Background and macroeconomic assumptions Under the Economic Recovery Strategy (ERS) covering the period 2003-07, Kenya made significant progress in macroeconomic management and in implementing key structural and governance reforms. As a result, the economy staged a remarkable broad-based recovery as growth of real GDP accelerated from 0. 5 percent in 2002 to 7. percent in 2007. In the aftermath of the post-election-violence (PEV) in early 2008 and the global economic slowdown, growth fell sharply in 2008 to 1. 7 percent. In 2009, the economy is projected to rebound only slightly to 2. 5 percent . Underpinning the good economic performance of recent years was the implementation of sound macroeconomic policies, and in particular, through 2007, the pursuit of a prudent fiscal stance in which the overall budget deficit (on a commitment basis, including grants) was contained to an average of about 2 per cent of GDP compared with a target of 3. percent in the ERS. As a result, there was a net domestic repayment of 0. 7 percent of GDP in 2007/08, relative to a net borrowing of 3. 6 percent of GDP in 2002/03, thereby contributing to a decline in the ratio of net domestic debt to GDP from 23 per cent in 2002/03 to roughly 17 per cent in June 2008. This facilitated a reduction in interest rates a nd an expansion of credit to the private sector in support of productive activities.With the conclusion of the ERS at end-2007, the Kenyan Government elaborated a medium-term development plan, the National Vision 2030, aimed at achieving rapid economic growth and poverty reduction. The vision had three pillars: †¢ an economic pillar whose goal was to achieve and then sustain annual real GDP growth of 10 percent by 2012 with a view to making Kenya a middle-income country by the year 2030; †¢ a social pillar aimed at creating a cohesive society enjoying equitable social development.This pillar would address inequality and poverty challenges faced by many Kenyans and move Kenya towards achieving some of the Millennium Development Goals; and †¢ a political pillar calling for an issues-based, accountable and democratic political system. Achieving the Vision 2030 growth target would require Kenya to increase its investment share in GDP from about 22 percent in 2007/08 to 33 percent by 2012/13. Over the same period, domestic savings would need to increase from about 16 percent of GDP to 28 percent. Details of the key indicators underpinning the macroeconomic framework are provided in Table 1. Table 1: Key Macroeconomic Indicators Underpinning Vision-2030 and the Medium-Term Plan | | |2007/08 |2008/09 |2009/10 |2010/11 |2011/12 |2012/13 | | | |Medium-term projections | |(Annual percentage change) | |National accounts and prices | |6. 2 |8. 3 |9. |9. 7 |10. 0 | |Real GDP |5. 7 |7. 5 |5. 0 |5. 0 |5. 0 |5. 0 | |CPI (end of period) |28. 5 | | | | | | |(In percent of GDP) | |Investment and savings | | | | | | | |Investment |21. |21. 9 |23. 3 |27. 3 |29. 9 |32. 6 | |o/w Central Government |8. 2 |8. 6 |8. 4 |8. 6 |9. 0 |9. 5 | |Gross domestic savings |15. 9 |15. 1 |17. 4 |21. 8 |24. 6 |27. 5 | |o/w Central Government |0. 4 |1. 6 |2. 7 |2. 9 |3. 2 |3. | |Central government budget | | | | | | | |Total revenue |21. 3 |21. 6 |21. 8 |21. 8 |21. 9 |22. 0 | |Total e xpenditure and net lending | | | | | | | |Overall balance (incl. grants) |29. 4 |28. 6 |27. 6 |27. 6 |27. 8 |28. | |Domestic debt, net (eop) | | | | | | | |Total Public Sector Debt |-6. 2 |-5. 6 |-4. 2 |-4. 0 |-4. 0 |-4. 0 | | |17. 8 |16. 8 |16. 5 |15. 7 |15. 0 |14. 3 | | |41. 6 |43. 0 |40. 2 |41. 3 |38. 0 |38. | |External sector | | | | | | | |Current account (incl. official transfers) | | | | | | | |Reserves (months of import cover) |-6. 0 |-6. 8 |-5. 9 |-5. 5 |-5. 3 |-5. 1 | | | | | | | | | | |3. |3. 5 |3. 7 |3. 9 |4. 2 |4. 5 | Source: Ministry of Finance; Medium-Term Budget Strategy Paper, 2008/09-2010/11. The fiscal framework underpinning the Vision 2030 scenario called for increased spending on the critical â€Å"flagship† projects, while at the same time ensuring that the overall fiscal deficit (after grants) would progressively narrow from 6. 2 percent of GDP in 2007/08 to a sustainable level of around 4 percent of GDP over the medium term. This would allow net domest ic debt to decline substantially from 17. 8 percent of GDP to 14. 3 percent by 2012/13.The strengthened fiscal position would be supported by the implementation of revenue administration measures by the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA), which would sustain the revenue-to-GDP ratio at around 22 percent throughout the medium-term. Under Vision 2030, public expenditure was to be restructured in favor of development spending and other priority social interventions. Improved management of public sector finances was expected to lead to a positive shift in investor and creditor confidence as well as to boost growth by providing the fiscal resources to raise public development spending from 8. percent of GDP in 2007/08 to 9 ? percent of GDP by 2012/13. B. The Medium-Term Plan, 2008-2012 (MTP)[9] To understand how the Kenya government envisaged the role of fiscal policy in its broad vision for development in the coming two decades, it is useful to begin with the first five-year development stra tegy, the Medium-Term Plan (MTP), issued in 2008 and intended to be the instrument for implementing the Vision 2030 development strategy. Two important elements underpin the MTP. First, the MTP clarified how overall resources in the economy would be allocated among the three pillars and the enabling sectors (i. . the Foundations for National Transformation) during the course of the first five-years of the Vision 2030 (see Annex Figure 1 and Annex Table 1). In particular, it highlighted the overwhelming importance that would be played by investments in infrastructure projects, particularly beginning in 2010/11. [10] While in 2008/09 and 2009/10, 21 percent of the resources was to be on infrastructure,[11] this share was to rise in the three subsequent years to about 60 percent with a heavy emphasis on roads (reflecting the inadequate maintenance and limited construction on new roads during the 1990s and earlier).The MTP also indicated that (with the exception of a short burst in 2009 /10), the social sector would absorb about 20 percent of available resources. Spending on the economic sector pillar was to drop sharply after 2008/09 (being replaced by infrastructure spending), but would then be held roughly constant for the remaining four years of the MTP period (see Annex Table 1). [12] Second, given the limited resources available to Government, the MTP emphasized that the financing of infrastructure should rely heavily on the private sector through the use of public-private-partnership (PPP) financing initiatives.For the five-year period, at least 80 percent of infrastructure spending should expect to be financed through PPPs, particularly starting in 2010/11. Thus, the success of infrastructure financing would be predicated on two important fundamentals: first, that domestic savings could be increased from about 16 percent of GDP in 2007/08 to reach 28 percent of GDP in 2012/13 and second, that a legal and regulatory framework for public-private-partnerships could quickly be put in place so investors would feel comfortable about investing in this strategy.Regarding the latter, we note that a PPP framework has been developed but has yet to be made operational. C. Medium-Term Budget Strategy Paper, 2009/10-2011//12 (MTBSP) Each year, the MTBSP provides much more detail on the government’s fiscal framework over the next three budget years, not only in terms of the allocation and financing of the budget for the different government ministries, but more importantly with regard to the key policy objectives. The most recent MTBSP was issued in June 2009 at the time of the BudgetSpeech for fiscal year 2009/10. Unlike the MTP, the MTBSP is guided by the need to be prudent on growth prospects to mitigate the risk of being overly optimistic, and in the event that higher than expected growth rates are achieved, the medium-term macroeconomic framework can be modified accordingly, with the higher revenues allocated to priority expenditures. Ta ble 2 below summarizes the main macroeconomic indicators underpinning the more cautious fiscal framework in the 2009 MTBSP.The table reveals the striking contrast between what had been assumed in the Medium-Term Plan for the next few years and the new assumptions dictated by recent domestic and external developments. Reflecting the domestic and external shocks of 2008 and 2009—the violence following the December 2007 election and the global economic slowdown—real GDP growth over the next three years is now projected to average under 5 percent, much lower than the 6. 8 percent projected in the 2008 MTBSP and half the 10 percent targeted under Vision 2030. | |Table 2: Key Macroeconomic Indicators Underpinning the MTBSP, | | |2007/08 |2008/09 |2009/10 |2010/11 |2011/12 | | | |Prel. Est. | | | | | | |Medium term projections | |(Annual percentage change) | |National accounts and prices | | | | | | |Real GDP |4. 0 |2. 5 |3. 1 |5. 2 |6. 4 | |CPI (end of period) |29. |18. 0 |10. 1 |5. 9 |5. 0 | |(In percent of GDP) | |Investment and savings |19. 1 |18. 1 |19. 2 | | | |Investment |8. 2 |7. 6 |10. 2 |22. 1 |23. 3 | |o/w Central Government |13. 5 |11. 9 |14. 1 |8. 9 |9. 1 | |Gross national savings |1. |1. 7 |2. 3 |17. 3 |19. 0 | |o/w Central Government | | | |3. 1 |3. 5 | |Central government budget | | | | | | |Total revenue |22. 0 |22. 6 |22. 3 |22. 5 |22. 6 | |Total expenditure and net lending |27. 2 |28. 5 |30. 3 |28. |28. 3 | |Overall balance (incl. grants) |-3. 5 |-4. 9 |-6. 6 |-4. 5 |-4. 2 | |Domestic debt, net (eop) |16. 9 |18. 5 |20. 6 |21. 1 |21. 1 | |Total Public Sector Debt |39. 3 |42. 6 |44. 5 |44. 3 |43. 8 | |External sector | | | | | | |Current account incl. off. ransfers |-5. 6 |-6. 2 |-5. 1 |-4. 8 |-4. 3 | |Reserves (months of import cover) |3. 4 |2. 8 |2. 9 |3. 1 |3. 5 | Source: Ministry of Finance; and the MTBSP, 2009/10-2011/12 With respect to the saving-investment balance, there is also a significant divergence between the MTP? s mediu m-term targets and the revised targets in the 2009 MTBSP. For example, the saving-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 19 percent compared with 24. 6 percent in the MTP in 2011/12—a shortfall of 5. percentage points of GDP. Similarly, the investment-to-GDP ratio is now projected to reach only 23. 3 percent in 2011/12 compared with 29. 9 percent in the MTP—a shortfall of 6. 6 percentage points of GDP. Virtually all the projected shortfall in both saving and investment are associated with the private sector as public sector saving and capital spending are broadly as envisaged in the MTP. The large projected shortfalls in private sector saving and investment suggests that the Vision 2030 growth objectives are unlikely to be met within the timeframe originally envisaged of 2012/13.Moreover, unless the level of productivity rises sharply (or the ICOR is reduced markedly compared with the target in the MTP) in the next few years, achieving the growth objectives of the Vision 2 030 with lower investment is unlikely to be realized. Therefore, to avoid a prolonged divergence between actual outcomes and the Vision 2030 objectives, it is critical for Kenya to fast track the implementation of key reforms aimed at rapidly improving the investment climate, while putting in place the institutional framework to facilitate private sector participation in infrastructure projects through the PPPs.Without these reforms, the timeline for achieving the Vision 2030 growth objectives will not only be delayed substantially but could be seriously compromised. As in the previous year, the 2009 MTBSP also aims at maintaining revenue collection at around 22 percent of GDP over the medium term. This is quite reasonable by historical Kenyan standards and high by Sub-Saharan African standards, and reflects an assumption that revenue collection will keep up with growth in nominal GDP.No major tax rate increases are envisaged in line with Kenya’s intention to maintain a compe titive climate for foreign and domestic investors by reducing the cost of doing business. Avoiding higher taxes seems, at this time, to be a reasonable policy position, though the issue of a further increase in the overall tax share will become more important to consider as one moves further into the next decade (as discussed below). The MTBSP rightly takes a cautious view on the availability of grants and concessional loans, which are projected at roughly 3. 5 percent of GDP annually through 2011/12.However, even for this amount of financing to become available, the MTBSP recognizes that improving public expenditure and financial management will be critical in order to give comfort to development partners that their resources are being efficiently used to support economic growth and poverty reduction. The decision to exclude budget support in formulating the medium-term framework is informed by the recent success of having more predictability in budget execution by ensuring that re sources allocated to line ministries are not disrupted by the ups-and-downs of donor relations and conditionalities.This practice has been highlighted positively by Standard and Poor’s and Fitch Ratings. However, as the 2008 MTBSP emphasized, the exclusion of budgetary support should not suggest a slowdown in implementing reforms in public expenditure management, in the financial sector, and in the restructuring and/or privatizing of public enterprises. Indeed, the assumed lower donor inflows should be accompanied by an intensification of the pace of structural reforms, especially in the modernization of tax and customs administration, to ensure Kenya’s recent financial independence is sustained in line with KRA’s motto of â€Å"Tulipe Ushuru–Tujitegemee. †On the expenditure side, the 2009 MTBSP proposes an increase in overall spending from 28. 5 percent of GDP in 2008/09 to 30. 3 percent followed by a gradual reduction thereafter to about 28 perce nt by 2011/12, while simultaneously effecting a slight shift in the composition of expenditure towards development projects. As a result, the share of recurrent outlays in total outlays will have declined from a high of 90 percent in 2002/03 to 80 percent in 2006/07 and to 67 percent by 2010/11. This is consistent with Vision 2030’s objective of increased funding for the flagship infrastructure projects while still maintaining macroeconomic stability.Reflecting the importance of the other pillars of Vision 2030, and in particular, the social pillar, the proposed expenditure profile in the 2009 MTBSP provides for spending on education and health to remain broadly unchanged at around 30 percent of total spending over the medium-term (Table 3). [13] This follows significant increases in resource allocation to both sectors in recent years. Nevertheless, it may still be necessary to provide more resources to both sectors (see below) and this will require careful prioritization of spending to create the fiscal space for the shift in budget priorities.In particular, spending on other parts of the budget (including public administration, defense, internal security, etc), which is currently projected to remain broadly stable at around 46 percent of total spending, may need to be rationalized in order to release resources for the social sectors. . |Table 3: Spending on the Social and Economic Sectors (in percent of total expenditure) 1/ | | |   |2007/08 |2008/09 |2009/10 |2010/11 |2011/12 | |Social Sectors |28. % |29. 3% |30. 4% |30. 6% |29. 6% | | Health | 6. 1% |5. 7% | 6. 8% |6. 0% |6. 0% | | Education |22. 0% |23. 6% |23. 6% |24. 7% |23. 7% | |Economic Sectors |†¦ |24. 8% | 22. 9% |23. 6% |24. 8% | | Productive, incl.Agriculture |†¦ |4. 3% |3. 5% |4. 3% |4. 4% | | Physical Infrastructure |†¦ |20. 5% |19. 5% |19. 3% |20. 4% | |Other |†¦ |45. 9% |46. 7% |46. 3% |45. 6% | |Total |†¦ |100. 0 |100. 0 |100. 0 |100. 0 | / Source: The Medi um-Term Budget Strategy Paper, 2009/10-2011/12 Based on the projected revenue and expenditure, the overall budget deficit (after grants) is estimated to initially rise from 4. 9 percent in 2008/09 to about 6 percent of GDP in 2009/10—reflecting the impact of the fiscal stimulus package—and then decline to 4. 2 percent by 2011/12. (see Table 2). It is anticipated that concessional financing, mainly from multilateral institutions, non-concessional borrowing through the issuance of sovereign bonds, and domestic borrowing will cover the deficits.The projected domestic borrowing (including issuance of domestic infrastructure bonds) would result in a gradual increase in the stock of outstanding net domestic debt from 17 percent of GDP in 2007/08 to about 21 percent in 2011/12. This increase, while necessary in the context of the economic slowdown and government policy response, carries with it the risk of potentially crowding out of the private sector. This could pose diffic ulties in allowing the private sector to play its role in financing economic activities consistent with achieving the higher growth path. D. Overall fiscal and debt sustainabilityThe projected medium-term fiscal deficits are broadly consistent with fiscal and debt sustainability. Throughout the period covered by the MTBSP, the ratio of public sector debt-to-GDP fluctuates within a narrow range of 40-44 percent of GDP, implying that the net present value of debt-to–GDP ratio is well below 35 percent. [14] It should be noted that the issuance of sovereign bonds to fund high-return infrastructure projects does carry some debt sustainability risks arising from the exchange rate, making it important that the projects be subjected to rigorous cost-effectiveness analysis.Also, some caution may be needed with regard to the timing of issuance of these bonds, given the increased borrowing spreads currently facing many developing countries, as well as the recent and potential further de preciation of the Kenya Shilling against the Euro and the US dollar. Regarding contingent liabilities, a significant amount has already been taken into account in the context of the financial restructuring of the National Bank of Kenya (over Ksh. 21 billion) and during the course of privatizing Kenya Telecom.However, owing to lack of data, not all potential contingent liabilities from the parastatal sector and from the pension scheme have been included in the debt sustainability analysis. Including such contingent liabilities would increase the official public debt and the risk of the overall public debt becoming unsustainable. Another potential source of contingent liabilities is the Government’s planned heavy reliance on public-private-partnerships to finance many of the infrastructure projects for Vision 2030. It will be critical to ensure that increased use of the PPP framework is well managed and minimizes potential contingent liabilities.Reliance on PPPs in some instanc es involves some assumption of the government ultimately, in the future, financing the purchase of the privately-built assets. Moreover, depending on the terms of an individual PPP, the government could bear a number of potential risks associated with each project (demand risk, financing risk, political risk, supply risk, legal risk, etc). The Government appears to be cognizant of this danger, and intends to establish a PPP unit in the Ministry of Finance to vet all new PPP funded projects.In the meantime, the Government should avoid any new PPP projects before the finalization of the PPP legal and regulatory framework. E. The Potential Role of PPPs Can and should Kenya realistically rely on PPP mechanisms? First, there are some areas of public infrastructural spending where potentially the private sector may be willing to invest and provide services without the need for a PPP (e. g. , as has already been demonstrated in the telecommunications sector). In other sectors, the challeng e is for the government to ensure that the same public policy factors that originally motivated public sector investment and provision, e. . , equity factors, natural monopoly conditions, or externalities, are taken into account in the way in which the private sector produces and delivers services. Here the government’s task is to ensure that a clear and well-designed regulatory structure is in place, particularly with regard to pricing policy. Second, private financing in the form of a PPP entails both opportunities and risks to a government, and management of these risks is essential if there is to be a genuine sharing of both the gains and the associated risks between the public and private sectors.What makes a PPP attractive to a government is the ability to harness the potential of the private sector to construct and operate a facility with greater efficiency than would be the case for the public sector, with such efficiency gains offsetting the presumably higher borrowi ng or equity costs associated with private as opposed to government borrowing. Such efficiency gains are particularly relevant when the private sector can bundle the construction and operating phases of a project, thus allowing for internalization of cost-reducing incentives (Scandizzo and Sanguinetti, 2009).At the same time, by substituting the private sector for public provision, the government can also save scarce public funds and relieve strained budgets. But PPPs can also be used, inappropriately, to bypass spending controls and move public investments off budget and debt off the government’s balance sheet. This could leave governments bearing most of the risks involved and face large fiscal costs over the medium to long term.Experience in other countries suggests that to work effectively and for a PPP to be an appropriate approach, several key prerequisites should be satisfied: the quality of services should be contractible; there should be competition or incentive-base d regulation; as noted, there should be an appropriate distribution of risks; the institutional framework should be characterized by political commitment, good governance, clear supporting legislation (including with regard to pricing); and a transparent procedure for award of performance incentives and enforcement of sanctions throughout the concession period.Finally, a government needs to have a capacity, both in the finance and sector ministries, to effectively appraise and prioritize public infrastructure projects; design PPPs; evaluate affordability, value for money and risk transfer; correctly select those projects that are appropriate to undertake as PPPs; draft and scrutinize contracts, monitor, manage and regulate ongoing projects, and undertake periodic performance evaluations (see Sutherland et al, 2009; Scandizzo and Sanguinetti, 2009; IMF, 2004; and Tchakarov, 2007).This underscores the importance of Kenya moving at a deliberate pace to put in place a strengthened manag ement capacity in the Ministry of Finance and given, past governance failures, caution to ensure that the government sector is not burdened with excessive risks that ought legitimately to be borne by the private sector. In terms of negotiating the distribution of risk, the experience of Latin American countries with PPPs suggests that some are appropriately borne by the private partner—those associated with the construction or the operation of the project in particular.Others, such as political and regulatory risk, clearly should be borne by the government. Others—such as market demand risk, some supply side risks (the cost of foreign exchange, some factor cost risks), may be influenced by government but not fully under its control. How such risks are shared is an obviously important and sensitive aspect in the negotiation of a PPP with a private partner, since it will bear on how large are the contingent risks to which a government is exposed. Experience also has taug ht that governments entering into PPPs need to be aware, that there is a strong tendency for contracts to be renegotiated.Tchakarov (2007) notes that in Latin America and the Caribbean, over 30 percent of PPPs were renegotiated (particularly in transportation and water projects), often within the first two to three years of the award of a PPP. Key factors forcing renegotiation have included the fixed term nature of concession contracts, the challenges posed by demand risk, poor decisions at the design stage, government acceptance of aggressive bidding, or changes in the rules of the game by the government after the contract award.Tchakarov also notes that an â€Å"improper regulatory framework and poor regulatory oversight [can] increase the chances of conflict, rent capture by operators, or opportunistic behavior by government. † In sum, private sector financing offers important opportunities for Kenya to augment its fiscal space for infrastructure, but successful exploitati on of this source requires important capacity building within the government in order to ensure both fiscal savings and efficiency gains relative to public provision.F. Risks The MTBSP recognizes that the underlying medium-term assumptions are not without risks, and that the projected rate of economic growth may not be achieved. Under such circumstances, the MTBSP indicates that the government would take appropriate measures to mitigate the risks to macro-economic stability, such as by delaying or scaling back on expenditures on non-priority programs. However, the MTBSP does not identify which programs would be curtailed should revenues fall short of projection. IV.Assessing the Vision and the Medium-Term Budget Strategy ADoes Vision 2030 and the MTBSP Address the Key Challenges facing Kenya? In assessing Kenya’s fiscal policy going forward, it is probably best to work from the plans indicated in the recent MTBSP, primarily because Vision 2030 and the MTP provide less detail on the macroeconomic and fiscal policy framework. Vision 2030 is also of course more ambitious in its objectives for growth, so that any doubts raised about the MTBSP would only be more the case concerning Vision 2030.At the outset, it is worth pointing out that the fiscal framework in the MTBSP appears to be based on fairly conservative assumptions and has introduced some degree of flexibility that can accommodate several alternative scenarios. In particular, the assumed lower growth in the MTBSP compared with the Vision 2030 is, regrettably, realistic in light of recent global developments. However, the projected constant ratio of revenue-to-GDP ratio also comes at a time when KRA is undertaking significant reforms in the customs and tax administration.This means that there is likely to be a revenue windfall. The projected disbursement of concessional loans in line with GDP assumes no improvement in absorption capacity in the key line ministries from the low levels of between 40-5 0 percent and the authorities have underscored this as an objective to pursue in coming years. With the recent enhanced monitoring of project implementation, the absorption of donor funds should increase. The exclusion of donor budget support from the framework at a time when PFM/PEM reforms are on-going also suggests a potential upside in donor support.Finally even with the increase in government spending associated with the fiscal stimulus, the level of public sector debt to GDP ratio still provides some scope for additional domestic borrowing to fund key infrastructure projects, if warranted, without jeopardizing Kenya’s debt sustainability status. All in all, with the exception of the growth scenario, most of the other assumptions appear fairly cautious and leave room for some over performance. Thugge et al make several key observations on these issues.While acknowledging that the authorities have articulated a sensible and ambitious policy strategy, recent domestic polit ical events and the global economic downturn highlight the setbacks to its realization almost from the outset. Revenue shortfalls, limited efforts at rationalizing spending in noncritical sectors, and the slow pace of civil service rationalization will limit the potential for meeting policy objectives in the health and education sectors, both in terms of levels of spending and efforts at increased sectoral efficiency.The need for increased infrastructural spending is recognized, but financing efforts remain impeded by the lack of progress on setting out the policy framework for enhanced private sector participation and an improved investment climate. Enhanced revenue efforts will also be needed, particularly from personal and corporate income taxes and from an increase in the effective VAT rate. Fifth, the MTP calls for a sharp increase in overall investment in order to achieve the planned 10 percent real GDP growth.However, in light of the sharply lower medium-term levels of saving and investment now projected in the MTBSP, the government needs to move with deliberate speed to implement structural reforms and improve the investment climate in order to raise productivity rapidly. Without a significant increase in total factor productivity, achieving the Vision 2030 growth objectives could be seriously impaired.One implication of the limited amount of resources available to G